Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of forest fires, along with the key factors influencing their occurrence, and accurately forecasting these events are crucial for effective forest management. In the Central-South region of China, forest fires pose a significant threat to the ecological system, public safety, and economic stability. This study employs Geographic Information Systems (GISs) and the LightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) model to identify the determinants of forest fire incidents and develop a predictive model for the likelihood of forest fire occurrences, in addition to proposing a zoning strategy. The purpose of the study is to enhance our understanding of forest fire dynamics in the Central-South region of China and to provide actionable insights for mitigating the risks associated with such disasters. The findings reveal the following: (i) Spatially, fire incidents exhibit significant clustering and autocorrelation, highlighting areas with heightened likelihood. (ii) The Central-South Forest Fire Likelihood Prediction Model demonstrates high accuracy, reliability, and predictive capability, with performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores exceeding 85% and AUC values above 89%, proving its effectiveness in forecasting the likelihood of forest fires and differentiating between fire scenarios. (iii) The likelihood of forest fires in the Central-South region of China varies across regions and seasons, with increased likelihood observed from March to May in specific provinces due to various factors, including weather conditions and leaf litter accumulation. Risks of localized fires are noted from June to August and from September to November in different areas, while certain regions continue to face heightened likelihood from December to February.

Due to the intensification of climate change around the world, the incidence of natural disasters is increasing year by year, and monitoring, forecasting, and detecting evolution using satellite imaging technology are important methods for remote sensing. This study aimed to monitor the occurrence of fire disasters using Sentinel-2 satellite imaging technology to determine the burned-severity area via classification and to study the recovery process to observe extraordinary natural phenomena. The study area that was sampled was in the southeastern part of Mongolia, where most wildfires occur each year, near the Shiliin Bogd Mountain in the natural steppe zone and in the Bayan-Uul sub-province in the forest-steppe natural zone. The normalized burn ratio (NBR) method was used to map the area of the fire site and determine the classification of the burned area. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to determine the recovery process in a timely series in the summer from April to October. The results of the burn severity were demonstrated in the distribution maps from the satellite images, where it can be seen that the total burned area of the steppe natural zone was 1164.27 km², of which 757.34 km² (65.00 percent) was classified as low, 404.57 km² (34.70 percent) was moderate-low, and the remaining 2.36 km² (0.30 percent) was moderate-high, and the total burned area of the forest-steppe natural zone was 588.35 km², of which 158.75 km² (26.98 percent) was classified as low, 297.75 km² (50.61 percent) was moderate-low, 131.25 km² (22.31 percent) was moderate-high, and the remaining 0.60 km² (0.10 percent) was high. Finally, we believe that this research is most helpful for emergency workers, researchers, and environmental specialists.

Grasping the spatial and temporal patterns of forest fires, along with the key factors that drive them and the ability to forecast such events accurately, is essential for the successful management of forests. In China's southern region, forest fires significantly endanger the ecological system, public safety, and economic well-being. Through the application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and LightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) model, this study investigates the determinants of fire incidents and formulates a predictive model for forest fire occurrences, alongside a zoning strategy, within the Central-South area. The results indicate: (i) Spatially, fire points exhibit significant clustering and autocorrelation characteristics; (ii) The Central-South Forest Fire Prediction Model shows exceptional accuracy, reliability, and predictive power, with high performance metrics across training and validation sets, including over 85% accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores, along with AUC values above 89%, underscoring its efficacy in forecasting forest fires and distinguishing between fire events; (iii) Throughout the year, forest fire risks in the Central-South region of China vary by region and season, with risk spikes from March to May in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Hainan. From June to August, localized risks are observed in Heyuan and Huangshi, while from September to November, an increase in risk is noted in Guangdong (Meizhou, Heyuan, Shaoguan), Guangxi (Nanning, Hezhou, Yulin), and Hunan (Binzhou, Yongzhou, Hengyang) due to cooler, drier conditions and leaf litter accumulation. From December to February, the risk continues in specific areas across Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, and Hubei.

Due to the intensification of climate change in the world, the incidence of natural disasters is increasing year by year, and monitoring, forecasting, and detecting evolution using satellite imaging technology is an important guide for remote sensing. This study aims to monitor the occurrence of fire disasters using Sentinel-2 satellite imaging technology, to determine the burned severity area with its classification and the recovery process for determining the extraordinary natural phenomena. The study area was sampled in the southeastern part of Mongolia, where have most wildfires in each year, near the Shiliin Bogd mountain in the natural steppe zone and in Bayan-Uul soum in the forest-steppe natural zone. For the methods, the NBR was used to map the area of the fire site and the classification of the burned area into 5 categories: unburned, low, moderate-low, moderate-high, and high, which are process-defined works. NDVI index was used to determine the recovery process in a timely series in the summer from April to October. In result, the burned areas were mapped from the satellite images, and the total burned area of steppe natural zone was 1164.27 km2, of which 757.34 km2 (65.00 percent) was low, 404.57 km2 (34.70 percent) was moderate-low, and remaining 2.36 km2 (0.30 percent) was moderate-high, and the total burned area of forest-steppe natural zone was 588,35 km2, of which 158.75 km2 (26.90 percent) was low, 297.75 km2 (50.61 percent) was moderate-low, 131.25 km2 (22.31 percent) was moderate-high and the remaining 0.60 km2 (0.10 percent) was high-medium. Finally, we believe that this research is most important to helpful for emergency workers, researchers, and environmental specialists.