The South African exchange rate has been volatile in recent years affecting the competitiveness of commodities in the market. Consequently, South African agricultural exporters have faced lower profitability or entire losses. More South Africa is among the top agricultural exporters in Africa. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports in South Africa using the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model over the period extending from first quarter of 2013 to first quarter of 2024. The study finds that the exchange rate affects agricultural export negatively in South Africa. The findings display that the exchange rate is statistically significant in explaining agricultural exports in South Africa. In addition, this study finds interest rate affects agricultural exports negatively whereas investment and trade openness affect agricultural export positively in South Africa. This infers that agricultural exports in South Africa are explained by various economic factors. Therefore, this study proposes implementing currency stabilisation policies is a crucial strategy to reduce exchange rate volatility, thereby reducing the negative impact on agricultural exports in South Africa. The policymakers can use currency hedging as tool to lessen the negative impact associated with the exchange rate volatility.

For decades, ensuring price stability has been a significant concern for the monetary authorities in emerging economies. Even though monetary policy is essential for keeping the price level stable, it is still exposed to shocks that can challenge economic objectives. As a result, the main objective of this study is to examine the asymmetric effects of stabilisation policies on the general price in the Southern African Common Monetary Area (CMA) between 1990 and 2022. The study uses panel analysis and panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags techniques to analyse the effects of exchange rate, money supply, government revenue, fiscal deficit, interest rate and government spending on the general price level. The results show that positive and negative changes in exchange rate, government revenue, fiscal deficit and interest rate significantly affect the general price level in the long run. However, only negative changes in interest rates and positive changes in fiscal deficit affect the price level in the long run. The long-term effect of government spending and money supply is insignificant. Furthermore, this study reports that there is a long-run asymmetric effect of the exchange rate on the general price level. The study suggests that contractive fiscal policy should be applied to avoid upward pressure on the general price level in the CMA, and a monetary policy approach should be applied to effectively control exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, a policy mix aimed at price stability should be implemented in the CMA.

The effect of fiscal and monetary policies can either improve or worsen environmental quality, depending on how the policies are implemented, this may lead to asymmetrical impacts. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policies on environmental quality in South Africa from 1990 to 2023 using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique. The study found that a positive shock in discount rate has a positive and significant influence on carbon emissions (CO2) in the long run however, a negative shock has an insignificant negative impact. Moreover, economic growth was reported to have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions (CO2) in the long run. A positive shock in government expenditure was found to have a significant and negative influence on carbon emissions (CO2), while a negative shock in government expenditure has a significant positive impact in the long run. The effect of fiscal and monetary policies on environmental quality were found to be asymmetrical in the long run. The reported findings have a significant implication for fiscal and monetary policies in South Africa and other countries with similar economic settings. Both monetary and fiscal policies have a significant influence on environmental quality, policymakers could implement strategies to enhance environmental quality by alleviating carbon emissions (CO2). In addition, policymakers should consider coordinating fiscal and monetary policies to attain decarbonisation.

The primary objective of this paper was to empirically examine the impact of artificial intelligence on international trade in selected Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2020 to 2024. The study utilized the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to analyze annual panel data. The findings indicate that artificial intelligence has a positive and statistically significant effect on trade flows. This suggests that artificial intelligence influences international trade in Sub-Saharan African countries. Additionally, the results confirm that inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) significantly impact international trade. Overall, artificial intelligence, inflation, and GDP play crucial roles in shaping international trade in Sub-Saharan Africa. The outcomes of this research underscore the important contribution of artificial intelligence to international trade in the region. Consequently, this study advocates for the adoption and utilization of artificial intelligence technology to enhance trade activities. Furthermore, governments should consider revising policies and regulations within the trading sector to facilitate the adoption and utilization of artificial intelligence. Such measures may strengthen global trade governance and promote globalization. When formulating policies related to artificial intelligence, policymakers should also account for other factors affecting international trade, such as GDP and inflation.

This study investigates the impact of public debt service costs on social expenditure in South Africa, focusing on three categories of social expenditure, namely, government education expenditure, government health expenditure and government social protection expenditure. It addresses the challenge of financing debt service costs while maintaining social expenditure. The study employed annual time series data from 1994 to 2024 and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effect of public debt service costs on social expenditure. The results reveal that debt service exhibits a negative and statistically significant impact across all three categories of social expenditure under consideration in the long run and short run in South Africa. Moreover, the results reveal that public debt has a negative relationship with all three categories of social expenditure. The exchange rate and revenue were found to have a positive relationship with all three categories of social expenditure under consideration. Urban population was found to have a positive relationship with government education expenditure and social protection expenditure. These findings underscore the need to focus on reducing the fiscal pressure stemming from increasing debt service costs, while upholding social expenditure. It is recommended that policymakers focus on debt stabilisation and reduction, thereby easing the crowding-out of social expenditure.

Studies on the implications of digital financial development and their impact on monetary policy effectiveness have shown mixed results, with some evidence of interdependence and potential transmission challenges. While some studies highlight positive growth impacts moderated by institutions with risks to policy sovereignty from innovations, research on South Africa remains minimal, despite having a mature financial system and rapid uptake of digital finance. The study used an ARDL model with the digital financial development index, inflation, interest rate, financial deepening, and an interaction of the digital financial development index and interest rate to analyse the implications of digital finance and its impact on monetary policy effectiveness in South Africa. Utilising annual data from 1990 to 2024, the results showed that the digital financial development index positively influences inflation in the long run. In addition, interest rates have a significant negative impact on inflation in the long run, while financial deepening, exchange rate and GDP per capita are insignificant in the long run. Furthermore, interest rate interactions with the digital financial development index exert downward inflationary pressure, but the interaction term is statistically significant in the long run. Therefore, digital financial development mitigates the inflationary effect of interest rates and appear to strengthen the monetary policy effectiveness in controlling inflation in the long run. We recommend that policymakers consider incorporating digital financial development indicators into the model for determining interest rates when developing a strategy to control inflation, thereby enhancing monetary policy effectiveness.