Purpose: The aim of the study was to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa’s (BRICS) property market returns under changing market conditions. Design/methodology/approach: The study utilised a Markov regime-switching model for the period February 2011 to June 2025. The dependent variables comprised BRICS’s property market returns, whereas the independent variables consisted of domestic inflation growth rate, gross domestic product growth rate and interest growth rate of each BRICS nation. Findings: The findings revealed that macroeconomic variables have a regime-specific effect on BRICS’s property market returns in bull and bear market conditions. That being said, inflation growth rate had a negative significant effect on Brazil’s, India’s and South Africa’s property returns in a bull market condition, whereas in the bear market condition, only India’s returns were negatively affected. Similarly, gross domestic product (GDP) had a negative significant effect on Russia’s and China’s property returns in a bull market condition, whereas in the bear market condition, the effect was insignificant. In contrast, interest growth rate had only a negative significant effect on South Africa’s and Brazil’s returns in bull and bear market conditions, respectively. The transition probabilities revealed that the bear market condition dominated BRICS property market returns, illustrating that the returns were decreasing across the sample period. Practical implications: Collectively, the study presents important implications for policymakers and investors, such that monetary policy adjustments and investment decisions must factor in the state of the property market, as bull and bear periods dictate the return perspective that influences investors and policymakers’ decisions. Originality/value: The study contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive asymmetrical analysis of macroeconomic fundamentals’ influence on BRICS’s property market return. Unlike previous studies that focus predominantly on the linear effect, this study highlights the nonlinear perspective between macroeconomic and property market returns, offering nuanced insights for policymakers and investors.

Studies on the implications of digital financial development and their impact on monetary policy effectiveness have shown mixed results, with some evidence of interdependence and potential transmission challenges. While some studies highlight positive growth impacts moderated by institutions with risks to policy sovereignty from innovations, research on South Africa remains minimal, despite having a mature financial system and rapid uptake of digital finance. The study used an ARDL model with the digital financial development index, inflation, interest rate, financial deepening, and an interaction of the digital financial development index and interest rate to analyse the implications of digital finance and its impact on monetary policy effectiveness in South Africa. Utilising annual data from 1990 to 2024, the results showed that the digital financial development index positively influences inflation in the long run. In addition, interest rates have a significant negative impact on inflation in the long run, while financial deepening, exchange rate and GDP per capita are insignificant in the long run. Furthermore, interest rate interactions with the digital financial development index exert downward inflationary pressure, but the interaction term is statistically significant in the long run. Therefore, digital financial development mitigates the inflationary effect of interest rates and appear to strengthen the monetary policy effectiveness in controlling inflation in the long run. We recommend that policymakers consider incorporating digital financial development indicators into the model for determining interest rates when developing a strategy to control inflation, thereby enhancing monetary policy effectiveness.