Although global warming over the past century has been confirmed, the response of different regions to it is still uncertain. We developed a tree‐ring width chronology based on tree‐ring samples from juniper trees from the Xiqing Mountains in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, the central headwater area of the Yellow River. Using this tree‐ring chronology, the minimum winter half‐year (October–April) temperature for the research area was reconstructed for the past 425 years. The reconstruction shows that temperature variability was minimal over past four centuries prior to the warming that began in 1941. During the 50 years from 1941 to 1990, the minimum temperature of the winter half‐year increased 2.5 °C. This degree of warming relative to the past 400 years suggests that the eastern Tibetan Plateau is highly sensitive to global warming. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

On the basis of meteorological station records during 1961–2010, we investigate the variations of temperature and precipitation in the Qaidam Basin. Results show that climate warming is significant in the region of Qaidam Basin over the past 50 years, with an average warming rate of 0.53 °C 10a⁻¹. The largest and smallest warming rate happened at Mangya station (0.89 °C 10a⁻¹) and Lenghu station (0.24 °C 10a⁻¹), respectively. Seasonal warming was greatest in winter at eight meteorological stations, ranging from 0.43 °C 10a⁻¹ (Lenghu station) to 1.01 °C 10a⁻¹ (Delingha station). Since 1961, the annual precipitation has increased with a rate of 7.38 mm 10a⁻¹. Seasonal precipitation mainly increased in summer (4.02 mm 10a⁻¹). The maximum precipitation increase occurred at Delingha station (25.09 mm 10a⁻¹) and the minimum at Lenghu station (0.10 mm 10a⁻¹). The elevation dependency of warming trends is unremarkable because most of the stations are located at lower altitudes. It is suggested that sunshine duration is related to the tendencies of temperature increase at different stations. Pollution emissions from industrial processes (i.e. brown clouds) and urbanization are the main factors contributing to the warming climate. Furthermore, the predominant weakening of zonal wind speed over the Tibetan Plateau resulted from the global warming also contributes to the climate warming in the Qaidam Basin. Consequently, the warming rate in the Qaidam Basin is much higher than in other regions over the Tibetan Plateau. The Qaidam Basin is thus considered to be the most susceptible region with the most significant warming in the Tibetan Plateau.

Background: Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. Results: We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. Conclusions: Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades. See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108