This paper comprehensively utilizes the entropy-TOPSIS method, Lyapunov index, and kernel density estimation to measure the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience in 52 African countries (regions) from 2008 to 2019. It also examines the spatial network characteristics of regional economic resilience in each country (region) through gravity models and social network analysis. The findings reveal that: (1) Although the resilience of African regional economies fluctuates, it generally shows an improving trend. Traditional economic powers and regional giants such as Libya, Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia demonstrate outstanding performance in economic resilience. (2) In terms of scale resilience, the countries along the North African Mediterranean coast exhibit particularly prominent advantages. However, the overall performance of Africa in fiscal resilience and openness resilience tends to be weak. Industrial resilience is influenced by colonial legacies and tends to stabilize. (3) The differences in economic resilience values and the fluctuation trajectories of economic resilience levels converge. North African economies exhibit resilience far higher than the mean and other regions, while East, West, and Central Africa consistently perform below the mean in the long term. Southern Africa’s gap from the mean is relatively small, leading to a stalemate. The fluctuation amplitude of differences within each region varies. (4) The overall level of resilience in African regional economies has steadily improved, displaying a trend of polarization. There is evident spatial polarization in West Africa, with Southern Africa demonstrating a trend of multipolarity transitioning towards bipolarity. Conversely, North Africa strengthens its features of bipolar differentiation, while East and Central Africa exhibit tendencies towards multipolarity. (5) Despite some fluctuations in the spatial network of regional economic resilience around 2016, connections among African countries have become increasingly tight, gradually forming three major spatial correlation network clusters: the North African Mediterranean coast, the West–Central African Pan-Gulf of Guinea region, and the East–South African Rift Valley region. Nigeria holds a prominent position as a regional core. Zambia, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic have played certain regional core roles at different times. Nigeria and South Africa also demonstrate significant intermediary roles, while Zambia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso act as bridges in different periods of network connections. Based on the characteristics of spatial correlation networks, African regions gradually form four major cohesive subgroups and eight sub-subgroups.

The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated for the base period (2010–2019), near future period (2020–2059) and distinct future period (2060–2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that for all periods, the vulnerability showed a high–high cluster in the east, and a low–low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near future period and distinct future period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.

Against the background of the rapid transformation of traditional economies and societies and continuous global climate change, how to ensure the long-term stability of the coastal ecological environment has become a key issue to be studied. In this paper, we take the 20 km buffer zone extending inland from the South African coastal zone as the study area. By constructing a vegetation vulnerability evaluation system, the current and future scenarios are compared in depth based on the base period (2010–2020), the near term (2030–2059), and the long term (2070–2099) with the help of GIS spatial analysis, the Moran index, and other methods. The results show that there are obvious spatial differences in vegetation vulnerability in the South African coastal zone. The extremely vulnerable areas of vegetation are mostly distributed on the west coast of South Africa, and some areas have obvious high–high aggregation patterns. The transfer of SSP1-2.6 scenarios in the near term is relatively stable, and the vegetation vulnerability level rebounds significantly in the long term; the vulnerability level of SSP2-4.5 scenarios has increased in both the near term and the long term, indicating that the risk of vegetation vulnerability has increased; while the SSP5-8.5 scenario has a significant deterioration trend in the long term, and the risk of vegetation vulnerability shifting to a high vulnerability level has increased significantly. Land use type has a significant impact on the response of vegetation vulnerability to SSP prediction. In the process of transformation from the base period to the long term, the proportion of vegetation vulnerability shifting to extremely vulnerable and severely vulnerable levels is notably high for both cultivated land and forest land—particularly under high-emission scenarios, driven by agricultural intensification for cultivated land and climate stress for forest land. This paper deeply explores the spatiotemporal evolution law and driving mechanism of vegetation vulnerability in the South African coastal zone under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, providing decision support for better development and protection of the South African coastal zone in the future.

The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated in the base period (2010-2019), near-term period (2020-2059) and long-term period (2060-2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that in all periods, the vulnerability showed a high-high cluster in the east, and a low-low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near-term period and long-term period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios, and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.