Jacaranda mimosifolia is regarded as a prized ornamental tree in the urban landscape with attractive, abundant and long-lasting violet-colored flowers and graceful tree form. It has been widely cultivated in recent years in many Chinese cities. However, the lack of scientific and practical guidance to cultivate the exotic species has brought about planting failures in some areas, incurring substantial economic losses and landscape decline. A comprehensive understanding of the current spatial pattern and climatic conditions of J. mimosifolia in China can inform species choice, planting and management. We collected data on the geographical coordinates of 257 planting cities and acquired additional information from the literature and field surveys. The limiting factors for cultivation were investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) of 19 bioclimatic parameters of the sampled sites. The potentially suitable habitats were predicted by BIOCLIM modeling using eight selected ecological-important climatic parameters. We found that the present cultivated areas were focused in the low-altitude parts of the subtropical zone, mainly covering the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. The PCA results indicated that temperature was the clinching determinant of the current cultivation patterns, especially annual mean temperature, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Moisture was a necessary but not critical secondary factor. The predicting model for potential habitats was graded as “excellent” by objective validation measures. The findings can provide science-based evidence to plan the expansion of the biogeographical range of cultivation into hitherto unplanted cities and rationalize urban tree introduction and management practices.

Introduction: Jacaranda mimosifolia, native to South America, is a notable ornamental tree widely used in Chinese urban landscaping due to its aesthetic and environmental value. Despite its popularity, the cultivation of J. mimosifolia in China faces challenges, including intermittent failures in various regions. This study assesses the potential distribution of J. mimosifolia in China and its response to climate change, providing insights for its application and promotion.Methods: Using MaxEnt software, we developed an ecological niche model from 218 distribution records and selected 10 environmental variables to predict the tree’s distribution under various climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370).Results: Our model demonstrates high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.90) across scenarios, identifying key factors such as the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), temperature annual range (bio7), and minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6). Their relative contribution rates were 49.3%, 18.4%, 15.6%, and 2.0%, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter was not lower than 5°C, with the ideal range being 7.38~14.88°C. Currently, J. mimosifolia predominantly thrives in Taiwan, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, Yunnan, and to a lesser extent in the Sichuan Basin, southern Guizhou, Tibet, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang province, covering a total area of approximately 122.19 × 10⁴ km². Future predictions indicate that under the SSP126 scenario, the most significant contraction occurs between the 2050s and 2070s, with a total change of −1.08 × 10⁴ km². Conversely, under the SSP370 scenario, the greatest expansion is observed from the 2030s to the 2050s, amounting to a change of 2.08 × 10⁴ km². Suitable area expansion is anticipated in most periods and scenarios, except for SSP126 in the 2070s, SSP245 in the 2050s, and SSP370 in the 2030s and 2070s. The distribution center shifts observed include movements northwestward, southwestward, and eastward with distances ranging from 5.12 km to 18.84 km. These shifts are likely driven by global warming, resulting in movements to higher elevations and latitudes.Discussion: These predictions will provide a solid theoretical foundation for the future application of J. mimosifolia in urban landscaping and serve as a valuable reference for its introduction and cultivation.