Climate change jeopardizes species survival, particularly for endangered species. This risk extends to the endangered Chinese endemic tree Tapiscia sinensis. The factors underpinning T. sinensis’s habitat distribution are poorly understood, and its potential response to future climate scenarios remains unclear. With six shortlisted climate factors and 117 occurrence records, we modeled T. sinensis’s potential distribution across China using the BIOCLIM model. We applied principal component analysis to examine the primary climate factors restricting its geographical range. The findings indicate that T. sinensis’ range is principally located in China’s middle subtropical climatic zone at low–mid altitudes. The principal component analysis identified two critical factors representing temperature and precipitation. Temperature was the most critical factor limiting T. sinensis distribution, especially the effect of temperature seasonality and isothermality. The habitat suitability model generated by BIOCLIM under current climate conditions demonstrated strong concordance between the predicted suitable areas and the present actual distribution range. These results verify that the model can reliably identify habitats conducive to T. sinensis growth and survival. However, under a hypothetical future climate scenario of doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for 2100, the model indicates a precipitous reduction and fragmentation in the areas with excellent suitability conditions. This predicted decline highlights the considerable threats posed by climate change to the long-term survival of this endangered species in China. Our habitat modeling yields critical insights that inform the development of science-based strategies and best practices to improve conservation management plans for research, protection, nursery cultivation, and sustainable planting in China. Habitat suitability knowledge could aid introduction and cultivation efforts for T. sinensis globally in places with analogous climates.

Castanea henryi, with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate‐change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate‐change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi, assisted by a proposed three‐domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor‐made strategies.

Venerable trees are important natural resources and cultural heritage, offering historical, ecological, social and economic value. However, global warming and anthropogenic activities have threatened their welfare and survival. A comprehensive understanding of their current and future spatial patterns, vis-á-vis environmental conditions, can inform the co-management of sustainable resource use and conservation. We employed the existing spatial occurrence data and environmental variables (bioclimate and elevation) to simulate the optimal habitats for venerable trees in China’s Sichuan Province. We evaluated the current and future climate scenarios of 2100 with double CO₂ concentration. The BIOCLIM and QGIS spatial analyses assessed the primary factors of geographical distribution. The results identified 10,720 venerable trees from 123 species, 81 genera and 42 families. Cupressus funebris dominated, with the maximum importance value, followed by Ginkgo biloba, Ficus virens var. sublanceolata, and Phoebe zhennan. The elevation distribution of tree abundance and species richness demonstrated a unimodal pattern, skewing to the low-elevation end, with a concentration in the 600–1500 m low-medium altitude. The majority of trees and excellent habitats were found in eastern Sichuan with a less harsh terrain and climate. The bio3 (isothermality) and bio7 (temperature annual range) factors significantly influenced tree occurrence. Temperature imposed a greater effect on distribution than moisture under the current climate scenario. For the future climate-change scenario, the suitable habitats were predicted to maintain an overall stable pattern, with largely contiguous expansions of better habitats. However, climate warming would shrink the excellent habitats on the plains. The findings can inform strategies and guidelines for venerable-tree conservation in Sichuan. Furthermore, vulnerable areas could be identified. The future range expansion sites could be enlisted to cultivate new trees to replenish the venerable-tree pool. Habitat patches that remain sustainable could provide refugia with the potential for protected-area designation.

Climate change has significantly influenced the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly those with a narrow ecological niche. Understanding climate change impacts on the distribution and spatial pattern of endangered species can improve conservation strategies. The MaxEnt model is widely applied to predict species distribution and environmental tolerance based on occurrence data. This study investigated the suitable habitats of the endangered Ormosia microphylla in China and evaluated the importance of bioclimatic factors in shaping its distribution. Occurrence data and environmental variables were gleaned to construct the MaxEnt model, and the resulting suitable habitat maps were evaluated for accuracy. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation quality (AUC = 0.962). The major environmental factors predicting the current distribution of O. microphylla were the mean diurnal range (bio2) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14). The current core potential distribution areas were concentrated in Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces in south China, demonstrating significant differences in their distribution areas. Our findings contribute to developing effective conservation and management measures for O. microphylla, addressing the critical need for reliable prediction of unfavorable impacts on the potential suitable habitats of the endangered species.

Jacaranda mimosifolia is regarded as a prized ornamental tree in the urban landscape with attractive, abundant and long-lasting violet-colored flowers and graceful tree form. It has been widely cultivated in recent years in many Chinese cities. However, the lack of scientific and practical guidance to cultivate the exotic species has brought about planting failures in some areas, incurring substantial economic losses and landscape decline. A comprehensive understanding of the current spatial pattern and climatic conditions of J. mimosifolia in China can inform species choice, planting and management. We collected data on the geographical coordinates of 257 planting cities and acquired additional information from the literature and field surveys. The limiting factors for cultivation were investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) of 19 bioclimatic parameters of the sampled sites. The potentially suitable habitats were predicted by BIOCLIM modeling using eight selected ecological-important climatic parameters. We found that the present cultivated areas were focused in the low-altitude parts of the subtropical zone, mainly covering the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. The PCA results indicated that temperature was the clinching determinant of the current cultivation patterns, especially annual mean temperature, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Moisture was a necessary but not critical secondary factor. The predicting model for potential habitats was graded as “excellent” by objective validation measures. The findings can provide science-based evidence to plan the expansion of the biogeographical range of cultivation into hitherto unplanted cities and rationalize urban tree introduction and management practices.