To fully leverage the spatiotemporal dynamic correlations in air traffic flow and enhance the accuracy of traffic flow prediction models, thereby providing a more precise basis for perceiving congestion situations in the air route network, a study was conducted on a traffic flow prediction method based on deep learning considering spatiotemporal factors. A waypoint network topology graph was constructed, and a neural network model called graph convolution and self-attention-based long short-term memory neural network (GC-SALSTM) was proposed. This model utilized waypoint flow and network efficiency loss rate as input features, with graph convolution extracting spatial features from the waypoint network. Additionally, a long short-term memory network based on a self-attention mechanism was used to extract temporal features, achieving accurate prediction of waypoint traffic. An example analysis was performed on a typical busy sector of airports in the Central and Southern China region. The effectiveness of adding the network efficiency loss rate as an input feature to improve the accuracy of critical waypoint traffic prediction was validated. The performance of the proposed model was compared with various typical prediction models. The results indicated that, with the addition of the network efficiency loss rate, the root mean square error (RMSE) for eight waypoints decreased by more than 10%. Compared to the historical average (HA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), and graph convolution network and long short-term memory network (GCN-LSTM) models, the RMSE of the proposed model decreased by 11.78%, 5.55%, 0.29%, 2.53%, and 1.09%, respectively. This suggests that the adopted network efficiency loss rate indicator effectively enhances prediction accuracy, and the constructed model exhibits superior predictive performance in short-term waypoint traffic forecasting compared to other prediction models. It contributes to optimizing flight paths and high-altitude air routes, minimizing flight delays and airborne congestion to the greatest extent, thus enhancing the overall efficiency of the entire aviation system.

The complex layout of the airport surface, coupled with interrelated vehicle behaviors and densely mixed traffic flows, frequently leads to operational conflict risks. To address this issue, research was conducted on the recognition of characteristics and risk assessment for airport surface operations in mixed traffic flows. Firstly, a surface topological network model was established based on the analysis of the physical structure features of the airport surface. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the simulation framework for airport surface traffic operations was proposed, enabling the simulation of mixed traffic flows involving aircraft and vehicles. Secondly, from various perspectives, including topological structural characteristics, network vulnerabilities, and traffic complexity, a comprehensive system for feature indices and their measurement methods was developed to identify risk hotspots in mixed traffic flows on the airport surface, which facilitated the extraction of comprehensive risk elements for any node’s operation. Finally, a weighting rule for risk hotspot feature indices based on the CRITIC–entropy method was designed, and a risk assessment method for surface operations based on TOPSIS–gray relational analysis was proposed. This method accurately measured risk indices for airport surface operations hotspots. Simulations conducted at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve high simulation accuracy. The identified surface risk hotspots closely matched actual conflict areas, resulting in a 20% improvement in the accuracy of direct risk hotspot identification compared to simulation experiments. Additionally, 10.9% of nodes in the airport surface network were identified as risk hotspots, including 3 nodes with potential conflicts between aircraft and ground vehicles and 21 nodes with potential conflicts between aircraft. The proposed methods can effectively provide guidance for identifying potential “aircraft–vehicle” conflicts in complex airport surface layouts and scientifically support informed decisions in airport surface operation safety management.

The ability to accurately predict flight time of arrival in real time during a flight is critical to the efficiency and reliability of aviation system operations. This paper proposes a data-light and trajectory-based machine learning approach for the online prediction of estimated time of arrival at terminal airspace boundary (ETA_TAB) and estimated landing time (ELDT), while a flight is airborne. Rather than requiring a large volume of data on aircraft aerodynamics, en-route weather, and traffic, this approach uses only flight trajectory information on latitude, longitude, and speed. The approach consists of four modules: (a) reconstructing the sequence of trajectory points from the raw trajectory that has been flown, and identifying its best-matched historical trajectory which bears the most similarity; (b) predicting the remaining trajectory, based on what has been flown and the best-matched historical trajectory; this is achieved by developing a long short-term memory (LSTM) network trajectory prediction model; (c) predicting the ground speed of the flight along its predicted trajectory, iteratively using the current position and previous speed information; to this end, a gradient boosting machine (GBM) speed prediction model is developed; and (d) predicting ETA_TAB using trajectory and speed prediction from (b) and (c), and using ETA_TAB to further predict ELDT. Since LSTM and GBM models can be trained offline, online computation efforts are kept at a minimum. We apply this approach to real-world flights in the US. Based on our findings, the proposed approach yields better prediction performance than multiple alternative methods. The proposed approach is easy to implement, fast to perform, and effective in prediction, thus presenting an appeal to potential users, especially those interested in flight ETA prediction in real time but having limited data access.

To further enhance fairness in the allocation of en-route space–time resources in the collaborative trajectory selection program, a study on the plan preferences between air traffic control (ATC) and airlines in the selection process of the final plan is conducted based on the initial resource allocation plans, considering the roles of airlines in resources allocation decisions. By using Stackelberg game theory, a game model is established for the roles played by ATC and airlines in the process of selecting plans. Then, combining the overall consideration of ATC for all affected flights, the preferences of airlines for initial allocation plans are obtained, and the option range of selectable plans is narrowed down to determine the optimal allocation plan. The results of the example analysis show that the proposed model and method can effectively select the optimal allocation plan from the six initial allocation plans, select the trajectories and entry slots in the congestion areas for airlines that better meet the operation demand, and provide the decision basis with more preferences for ATC to select the final allocation plan. When ATC prefers the lowest overall delay cost, the delay cost of the selected optimal allocation plan is 267.7 min, which is 23.84% lower than the traditional RBS algorithm; when considering the preferences of the main base airline in East China, the delay cost of the selected optimal allocation plan is 287.7 min, which is 18.15% lower than the traditional RBS algorithm.

With the development of civil aviation in China, airspace congestion has become more and more serious and has gradually spread from airport terminal areas to en route networks. Traditionally, most prediction methods that obtain traffic flow data are based on the number of aircraft passing through an en route sector and require flight data to meet strict assumptions and conditions. While these methods are normally used in the actual operation of air traffic flow management departments in China, the results are not satisfactory due to the nonlinearity of traffic demand along en route sectors and the change in high-frequency noise. In order to refine aircraft control in airspace, it is necessary to predict traffic flow accurately. Thus, this paper proposes the quantile regression neural network and kernel density estimation method to obtain some quantiles of continuous traffic demand data in the future, which combines the strong nonlinear adaptive ability of neural networks with the ability of quantile regression to describe explanatory variables. By using these continuous conditional quantiles, we obtain the probability density function and probability density curve of the continuous traffic demand in the future using the kernel density estimation method. In this way, we can obtain not only a specific point prediction value and its change interval but also the probability of each value in the prediction change interval of traffic demand in the en route sector as well as a more accurate point prediction value for a specific day.

The state path optimization model, alongside strategies like slowing down and waiting, aims to identify optimal aircraft routes that minimize the total taxi time and prevent conflicts. Optimization reduces taxiing times for aircraft YZR7537, CES2558, and CSZ9806, while slightly increasing the times for CSN6310 and CSN3210 due to conflict hotspot avoidance measures. This approach also decreases the number of aircraft passing through key conflict hotspots, effectively reducing both conflicts and risk levels in these areas. Consequently, the total taxiing time for the optimized aircraft is cut by 53 s, enhancing airport operational efficiency. The proposed model serves as a theoretical foundation for developing an intelligent airport operation management system.