The complex layout of the airport surface, coupled with interrelated vehicle behaviors and densely mixed traffic flows, frequently leads to operational conflict risks. To address this issue, research was conducted on the recognition of characteristics and risk assessment for airport surface operations in mixed traffic flows. Firstly, a surface topological network model was established based on the analysis of the physical structure features of the airport surface. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the simulation framework for airport surface traffic operations was proposed, enabling the simulation of mixed traffic flows involving aircraft and vehicles. Secondly, from various perspectives, including topological structural characteristics, network vulnerabilities, and traffic complexity, a comprehensive system for feature indices and their measurement methods was developed to identify risk hotspots in mixed traffic flows on the airport surface, which facilitated the extraction of comprehensive risk elements for any node’s operation. Finally, a weighting rule for risk hotspot feature indices based on the CRITIC–entropy method was designed, and a risk assessment method for surface operations based on TOPSIS–gray relational analysis was proposed. This method accurately measured risk indices for airport surface operations hotspots. Simulations conducted at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve high simulation accuracy. The identified surface risk hotspots closely matched actual conflict areas, resulting in a 20% improvement in the accuracy of direct risk hotspot identification compared to simulation experiments. Additionally, 10.9% of nodes in the airport surface network were identified as risk hotspots, including 3 nodes with potential conflicts between aircraft and ground vehicles and 21 nodes with potential conflicts between aircraft. The proposed methods can effectively provide guidance for identifying potential “aircraft–vehicle” conflicts in complex airport surface layouts and scientifically support informed decisions in airport surface operation safety management.

With the development of civil aviation in China, airspace congestion has become more and more serious and has gradually spread from airport terminal areas to en route networks. Traditionally, most prediction methods that obtain traffic flow data are based on the number of aircraft passing through an en route sector and require flight data to meet strict assumptions and conditions. While these methods are normally used in the actual operation of air traffic flow management departments in China, the results are not satisfactory due to the nonlinearity of traffic demand along en route sectors and the change in high-frequency noise. In order to refine aircraft control in airspace, it is necessary to predict traffic flow accurately. Thus, this paper proposes the quantile regression neural network and kernel density estimation method to obtain some quantiles of continuous traffic demand data in the future, which combines the strong nonlinear adaptive ability of neural networks with the ability of quantile regression to describe explanatory variables. By using these continuous conditional quantiles, we obtain the probability density function and probability density curve of the continuous traffic demand in the future using the kernel density estimation method. In this way, we can obtain not only a specific point prediction value and its change interval but also the probability of each value in the prediction change interval of traffic demand in the en route sector as well as a more accurate point prediction value for a specific day.