In recent years, numerous studies have explored how energy and environmental performance impact property values. Superior energy efficiency is the basis for value disparities in real estate markets. However, measurements of these variations vary significantly. This research aims to investigate the relationship between market size and vitality and market value differences. This has significant implications for the nature of the energy transition, potentially determining fairness or inequality. The study considers the real estate market in six Italian cities: three metropolitan (Milan, Turin, and Florence) and three medium-sized cities (Padua, Mestre, and Bergamo). The sample includes 2935 properties. In metropolitan cities, hedonic pricing models confirm the relevance of energy performance in market value formation, highlighting a potential depreciation in property values by up to 30% between properties belonging to the highest energy class (A) compared to the lowest (G), and 14% between class D and G. Such premium gaps are halved in medium-sized cities. Conclusions foresee a scenario of socially and economically unjust transition that must be considered in policies aimed at improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings, with a specific concern for the nature and characteristics of the real estate markets involved.

The transition to energy-efficient buildings is a priority of the European EPBD (Energy Performance Building Directive) and requires deep retrofits to reduce consumption and emissions. However, their financial viability remains underexplored. This research assesses the financial feasibility of deep retrofit interventions through innovative business models, focusing on the Managed Energy Services Agreement (MESA), which is considered the most effective for residential buildings. Additionally, we integrate off-site production from the Energiesprong model, which optimizes costs and time through long-term contracts and industrialized retrofit technologies. The analysis targets two investment profiles—owner/tenant and developer/entrepreneur—in Italian urban contexts with different market dynamics. A static analysis evaluates retrofits based on existing costs and technologies, while a dynamic analysis considers future profitability improvements because of cost reductions enabled by off-site production. The results indicate that, under current conditions, residential retrofitting is not financially sustainable without public subsidies. However, cost reductions driven by off-site technologies improve profitability, making large-scale retrofits feasible. Moreover, real estate market characteristics affect financial sustainability: in smaller cities, deeper cost reductions are necessary for retrofit interventions to become viable.

Within the framework of European climate policies, the energy renovation of the built environment is a priority for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GlobalABC 2022; United Nations Environment Pro...