Recently, a number of data analysists have suffered from an insufficiency of historical observations in many real situations. To address the insufficiency of historical observations, self-starting forecasting process can be used. A self-starting forecasting process continuously updates the base models as new observations are newly recorded, and it helps to cope with inaccurate prediction caused by the insufficiency of historical observations. This study compared the properties of several exponentially weighted moving average methods as base models for the self-starting forecasting process. Exponentially weighted moving average methods are the most widely used forecasting techniques because of their superior performance as well as computational efficiency. In this study, we compared the performance of a self-starting forecasting process using different existing exponentially weighted moving average methods under various simulation scenarios and real case datasets. Through this study, we can provide the guideline for determining which exponentially weighted moving average method works best for the self-starting forecasting process.

In modern industrial systems, establishing the optimal maintenance policy for rotating machinery is essential to improve productivity and prevent catastrophic accidents. To this end, many machinery engineers have been interested in condition-based maintenance strategies, which execute the maintenance activity only when the fault symptoms are detected. For more accurate fault detection of rotating machinery, vibration signals have been widely used. However, the vibration signals collected from most real rotating machinery are noisy and nonstationary, and signals from fault states also rarely exist. To address these issues, we newly propose a fault detection framework with a spectrogram and convolutional autoencoder. Firstly, the raw vibration signals are transformed into spectrograms to represent both time- and frequency-related information. Then, a two-dimensional convolutional autoencoder is trained using only normal signals. The encoder part of the convolutional autoencoder is used as a feature extractor of the vibration signals in that it summarizes information on the input spectrogram into the smaller latent feature vector. Finally, we construct the fault detection model by applying the one-class classification algorithm to the latent feature vectors of training signals. We conducted an experimental study using vibration signals collected from a rolling element bearing experimental platform. The results confirm the superiority of the proposed fault detection framework on rotating machinery. In the experimental study, the proposed fault detection framework yielded AUROC values of almost one, and this implies that the proposed framework can be sufficiently applied to real-world fault signal detection problems.

Fault detection of machinery systems is a fundamental prerequisite to implementing condition-based maintenance, which is the most eminent manufacturing equipment system management strategy. To build the fault detection model, one-class classification algorithms have been used, which construct the decision boundary only using normal class. For more accurate one-class classification, signal data have been used recently because the signal data directly reflect the condition of the machinery system. To analyze the machinery condition effectively with the signal data, features of signals should be extracted, and then, the one-class classifier is constructed with the features. However, features separately extracted from one-class classification might not be optimized for the fault detection tasks, and thus, it leads to unsatisfactory performance. To address this problem, deep one-class classification methods can be used because the neural network structures can generate the features specialized to fault detection tasks through the end-to-end learning manner. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive experimental study with various fault signal datasets. The experimental results demonstrated that the deep support vector data description model, which is one of the most prominent deep one-class classification methods, outperforms its competitors and traditional methods.