Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to serious consequences in high-stakes applications such as autonomous driving, medical diagnosis, and disaster response. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) estimates the confidence of DNN predictions in addition to their accuracy. In recent years, many UQ methods have been developed for DNNs. It is valuable to systematically categorize these methods and compare their strengths and limitations. Existing surveys mostly categorize UQ methodologies by neural network architecture or Bayesian formulation, while overlooking the uncertainty sources each method addresses, making it difficult to select an appropriate approach in practice. To fill this gap, this article presents a taxonomy of UQ methods for DNNs based on uncertainty sources (e.g., data versus model uncertainty). We summarize the advantages and disadvantages of each category, and illustrate how UQ can be applied to machine learning problems (e.g., active learning, out-of-distribution robustness, and deep reinforcement learning). We also identify future research directions, including UQ for large language models (LLMs), AI-driven scientific simulations, and DNNs with structured outputs.

Given raster imagery features and imperfect vector training labels with registration uncertainty, this paper studies a deep learning framework that can quantify and reduce the registration uncertainty of training labels as well as train neural network parameters simultaneously. The problem is important in broad applications such as streamline classification on Earth imagery or tissue segmentation on medical imagery, whereby annotating precise vector labels is expensive and time-consuming. However, the problem is challenging due to the gap between the vector representation of class labels and the raster representation of image features and the need for training neural networks with uncertain label locations. Existing research on uncertain training labels often focuses on uncertainty in label class semantics or characterizes label registration uncertainty at the pixel level (not contiguous vectors). To fill the gap, this paper proposes a novel learning framework that explicitly quantifies vector labels' registration uncertainty. We propose a registration-uncertainty-aware loss function and design an iterative uncertainty reduction algorithm by re-estimating the posterior of true vector label locations distribution based on a Gaussian process. Evaluations on real-world datasets in National Hydrography Dataset refinement show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several baselines in the registration uncertainty estimations performance and classification performance.

Semi-supervised learning aims to learn prediction models from both labeled and unlabeled samples. There has been extensive research in this area. Among existing work, generative mixture models with Expectation-Maximization (EM) is a popular method due to clear statistical properties. However, existing literature on EM-based semi-supervised learning largely focuses on unstructured prediction, assuming that samples are independent and identically distributed. Studies on EM-based semi-supervised approach in structured prediction is limited. This paper aims to fill the gap through a comparative study between unstructured and structured methods in EM-based semi-supervised learning. Specifically, we compare their theoretical properties and find that both methods can be considered as a generalization of self-training with soft class assignment of unlabeled samples, but the structured method additionally considers structural constraint in soft class assignment. We conducted a case study on real-world flood mapping datasets to compare the two methods. Results show that structured EM is more robust to class confusion caused by noise and obstacles in features in the context of the flood mapping application.

Spatial structured models are predictive models that capture dependency structure between samples based on their locations in the space. Learning such models plays an important role in many geoscience applications, but it also poses significant challenges due to implicit dependency structure in continuous space and high computational costs. Existing models often assume that the dependency structure is based on either spatial proximity or network topology, and thus cannot incorporate complex dependency structure such as contour and flow direction on a 3D potential surface. To fill the gap, we recently proposed hidden Markov contour tree (HMCT), which generalizes the traditional hidden Markov model from a total order sequence to a partial order polytree. HMCT also advances existing work on hidden Markov trees through capturing complex contour structures. We proposed efficient model construction and learning algorithms. This paper extends our initial HMCT model into a post-processor. We analyzed the theoretical properties of the extended model. Evaluations on real-world flood mapping datasets show that HMCT outperforms multiple baseline methods in classification performance and the HMCT post-processor can also effectively enhance other baseline methods. Computational experiments show that HMCT is scalable to large data sizes (e.g., classifying millions of samples in seconds).

Deep learning for Earth imagery plays an increasingly important role in geoscience applications such as agriculture, ecology, and natural disaster management. Still, progress is often hindered by the limited training labels. Given Earth imagery with limited training labels, a base deep neural network model, and a spatial knowledge base with label constraints, our problem is to infer the full labels while training the neural network. The problem is challenging due to the sparse and noisy input labels, spatial uncertainty within the label inference process, and high computational costs associated with a large number of sample locations. Existing works on neuro-symbolic models focus on integrating symbolic logic into neural networks (e.g., loss function, model architecture, and training label augmentation), but these methods do not fully address the challenges of spatial data (e.g., spatial uncertainty, the trade-off between spatial granularity and computational costs). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel Spatial Knowledge-Infused Hierarchical Learning (SKI-HL) framework that iteratively infers sample labels within a multi-resolution hierarchy. Our framework consists of a module to selectively infer labels in different resolutions based on spatial uncertainty and a module to train neural network parameters with uncertainty-aware multi-instance learning. Extensive experiments on real-world flood mapping datasets show that the proposed model outperforms several baseline methods. The code is available at https://github.com/ZelinXu2000/SKI-HL.

Tidal creeks play a vital role in influencing geospatial evolution and marsh ecological communities in coastal landscapes. However, evaluating the geospatial characteristics of numerous creeks across a site and understanding their ecological relationships pose significant challenges due to the labor-intensive nature of manual delineation from imagery. Traditional methods rely on manual annotation in GIS interfaces, which is slow and tedious. This study explores the application of Attention-based Dense U-Net (ADU-Net), a deep learning image segmentation model, for automatically classifying creek pixels in high-resolution (0.5 m) orthorectified aerial imagery in coastal Georgia, USA. We observed that ADU-Net achieved an outstanding F1 score of $0.98$ in identifying creek pixels, demonstrating its ability in tidal creek mapping. The study highlights the potential of deep learning models for automated tidal creek mapping, opening avenues for future investigations into the role of creeks in marshes’ response to environmental changes.