Flash droughts tend to cause severe damage to agriculture due to their characteristics of sudden onset and rapid intensification. Early detection of the response of vegetation to flash droughts is of utmost importance in mitigating the effects of flash droughts, as it can provide a scientific basis for establishing an early warning system. The commonly used method of determining the response time of vegetation to flash drought, based on the response time index or the correlation between the precipitation anomaly and vegetation growth anomaly, leads to the late detection of irreversible drought effects on vegetation, which may not be sufficient for use in analyzing the response of vegetation to flash drought for early earning. The evapotranspiration-based (ET-based) drought indices are an effective indicator for identifying and monitoring flash drought. This study proposes a novel approach that applies cross-spectral analysis to an ET-based drought index, i.e., Evaporative Stress Anomaly Index (ESAI), as the forcing and a vegetation-based drought index, i.e., Normalized Vegetation Anomaly Index (NVAI), as the response, both from medium-resolution remote sensing data, to estimate the time lag of the response of vegetation vitality status to flash drought. An experiment on the novel method was carried out in North China during March–September for the period of 2001–2020 using remote sensing products at 1 km spatial resolution. The results show that the average time lag of the response of vegetation to water availability during flash droughts estimated by the cross-spectral analysis over North China in 2001–2020 was 5.9 days, which is shorter than the results measured by the widely used response time index (26.5 days). The main difference between the phase lag from the cross-spectral analysis method and the response time from the response time index method lies in the fundamental processes behind the definitions of the vegetation response in the two methods, i.e., a subtle and dynamic fluctuation signature in the response signal (vegetation-based drought index) that correlates with the fluctuation in the forcing signal (ET-based drought index) versus an irreversible impact indicated by a negative NDVI anomaly. The time lag of the response of vegetation to flash droughts varied with vegetation types and irrigation conditions. The average time lag for rainfed cropland, irrigated cropland, grassland, and forest in North China was 5.4, 5.8, 6.1, and 6.9 days, respectively. Forests have a longer response time to flash droughts than grasses and crops due to their deeper root systems, and irrigation can mitigate the impacts of flash droughts. Our method, based on cross-spectral analysis and the ET-based drought index, is innovative and can provide an earlier warning of impending drought impacts, rather than waiting for the irreversible impacts to occur. The information detected at an earlier stage of flash droughts can help decision makers in developing more effective and timely strategies to mitigate the impact of flash droughts on ecosystems.

Flash droughts, a type of extreme event characterized by the sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts on ecosystems, have become more frequent in recent years due to global warming. The drought index is an effective way to monitor drought and mitigate its negative impact on human production and life. This study presents a new flash drought identification and monitoring method based on the evapotranspiration-based drought index, i.e., the evaporative stress percentile (ESP). This ESP-based method considers both the rate of the rapid intensification and each phase of flash drought development, which allows it to be used quantitative assessment of flash drought characteristics including detailed information on the onset, development, termination, and intensity. The ESP is evaluated using the soil moisture percentile (SMP) derived from the GLDAS-Noah soil moisture data. The results show that there was good agreement between the ESP and SMP across most of China, with correlation coefficient values above 0.8 and MAE values below 10 percentile/week. The ESP was then used to identify flash droughts in China and compared with the Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (PAP) and the SMP for three cases of typical flash drought events in three different regions and years with different land covers. It demonstrates the robustness of the ESP for detecting flash droughts in different geographical regions, for different land cover types, and for different climatic characteristics. This method is applied to characterize historical flash droughts in 1979–2018 in China, and the results show that flash droughts in China occur most frequently in the transitional climate zone between humid and arid regions in Northern China. This study contributes to a better understanding of flash drought development and supports to decision-makers in providing early warnings for flash droughts.

Early-season winter wheat mapping is crucial for agricultural management and food security, but reliable identification remains challenging under weak spectral conditions during early growth stages. To address this challenge, this study developed a CNN–LSTM with a lag-aware gated fusion model (CL-LGFM) for winter wheat mapping in the Chaohu Basin, China, using a reconstructed 5-day Sentinel-2 NDVI time series and precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The model employs a dual-branch architecture to jointly learn vegetation and precipitation features and introduces a lag-aware dynamic gated fusion module to capture the delayed response of vegetation to precipitation and enhance multi-source feature fusion. The results show that the proposed method achieved reliable early-season winter wheat mapping (OA ≥ 0.90, Kappa ≥ 0.80) on 26 January, at least 10 days earlier than traditional methods, including SVM, RF, DTW, and TCN, using the same reconstructed 5-day NDVI time series. Optimal performance uses a 7 × 7 patch size and 30-day precipitation window.