Severe pulmonary hypertension in chronic lung diseases (severe CLD-PH) differs significantly from other types of PH in physiology and prognosis. We aimed to assess whether echocardiography helps predict long-term survival in patients with severe CLD-PH. This single-centre, observational cohort study enrolled 100 patients with severe CLD-PH (mean pulmonary arterial pressure ≥35 mm Hg or ≥25 mm Hg with cardiac index <2.0 L/min/m2 or pulmonary vascular resistance ≥6 Wood units) between 2009 and 2014. The population was randomly divided into a derivation and validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. To construct a nomogram, a multivariable logistic regression model was applied, and scores were assigned based on the hazard ratio of independent echocardiographic predictors. Multivariate Cox hazards analysis identified the strongest predictors of mortality as pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, and right ventricular end-diastolic transverse dimension. The three independent predictors were entered into the nomogram. Compared with PASP alone, the nomogram resulted in an integrated discrimination improvement of 15.5% (95% confidence interval, 5.52–25.5%, p = 0.002) with a net improvement in model discrimination (C-statistic from 0.591 to 0.746). Using echocardiographic parameters, we established and validated a novel nomogram to predict all-cause death for patients with severe CLD-PH.
Background: The 2015 European pulmonary hypertension (PH) guidelines recommend a risk stratification strategy for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We aimed to investigate the validation and potential prognostic information in Chinese patients.Methods: The risk assessment variables proposed by the PH guidelines were performed by using the WHO function class, 6-min walking distance, brain natriuretic peptide or its N-terminal fragment, right arterial pressure, cardiac index, mixed venous saturation, right atrium area, pericardial effusion, peak oxygen consumption, and ventilatory equivalents for carbon dioxide. An abbreviated version also was applied.Results: A total of 392 patients with idiopathic PAH (IPAH) were enrolled between 2009 and 2018. After a median interval of 13 months, re-evaluation assessments were available for 386 subjects. The PAH guidelines risk tool may effectively discriminate three risk groups and mortality (p < 0.001) both at the baseline and re-evaluation. Meanwhile, its simplified risk version was valid for baseline and accurately predicted the risk of death in all the risk groups (p < 0.001). At the time of re-evaluation, the percentage of low-risk group has an increase, but a greater proportion achieved the high-risk group and a lesser proportion maintained in the intermediate-risk group.Conclusion: The 2015 European PH guidelines and its simplified version risk stratification assessment present an effective discrimination of different risk groups and accurate mortality estimates in Chinese patients with IPAH. Changes of risk proportion at re-evaluation implicated that natural treatment decisions may not be consistently with goal-oriented treatment strategy.