Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide, with an incidence that is exponentially increasing. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most frequent primary tumor. There is an increasing relationship between these entities due to the potential risk of developing NAFLD-related HCC and the prevalence of NAFLD. There is limited evidence regarding prognostic factors at the diagnosis of HCC. This study compares the prognosis of HCC in patients with NAFLD against other etiologies. It also evaluates the prognostic factors at the diagnosis of these patients. For this purpose, a multicenter retrospective study was conducted involving a total of 191 patients. Out of the total, 29 presented NAFLD-related HCC. The extreme gradient boosting (XGB) method was employed to develop the reference predictive model. Patients with NAFLD-related HCC showed a worse prognosis compared to other potential etiologies of HCC. Among the variables with the worst prognosis, alcohol consumption in NAFLD patients had the greatest weight within the developed predictive model. In comparison with other studied methods, XGB obtained the highest values for the analyzed metrics. In conclusion, patients with NAFLD-related HCC and alcohol consumption, obesity, cirrhosis, and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) exhibited a worse prognosis than other patients. XGB developed a highly efficient predictive model for the assessment of these patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver tumor and is associated with high mortality rates. Approximately 80% of cases occur in cirrhotic livers, posing a significant challenge for appropriate therapeutic management. Adequate screening programs in high-risk groups are essential for early-stage detection. The extent of extrahepatic tumor spread and hepatic functional reserve are recognized as two of the most influential prognostic factors. In this retrospective multicenter study, we utilized machine learning (ML) methods to analyze predictors of mortality at the time of diagnosis in a total of 208 patients. The eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB) method achieved the highest values in identifying key prognostic factors for HCC at diagnosis. The etiology of HCC was found to be the variable most strongly associated with a poorer prognosis. The widely used Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification in our setting demonstrated superiority over the TNM classification. Although alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains the most commonly used biological marker, elevated levels did not correlate with reduced survival. Our findings suggest the need to explore new prognostic biomarkers for individualized management of these patients.

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for 75% of primary liver tumors. Controlling risk factors associated with its development and implementing screenings in risk populations does not seem sufficient to improve the prognosis of these patients at diagnosis. The development of a predictive prognostic model for mortality at the diagnosis of HCC is proposed. Methods: In this retrospective multicenter study, the analysis of data from 191 HCC patients was conducted using machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze the prognostic factors of mortality that are significant at the time of diagnosis. Clinical and analytical data of interest in patients with HCC were gathered. Results: Meeting Milan criteria, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification and albumin levels were the variables with the greatest impact on the prognosis of HCC patients. The ML algorithm that achieved the best results was random forest (RF). Conclusions: The development of a predictive prognostic model at the diagnosis is a valuable tool for patients with HCC and for application in clinical practice. RF is useful and reliable in the analysis of prognostic factors in the diagnosis of HCC. The search for new prognostic factors is still necessary in patients with HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presents high mortality rates worldwide, with limited evidence on prognostic factors at diagnosis. This study evaluates the utility of common scores incorporating albumin as predictors of mortality at HCC diagnosis using Machine Learning techniques. They are also compared to other scores and variables commonly used. A retrospective cohort study was conducted with 191 patients from Virgen de la Luz Hospital of Cuenca and University Hospital of Guadalajara. Demographic, analytical, and tumor-specific variables were included. Various Machine Learning algorithms were implemented, with eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) as the reference method. In the predictive model developed, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer score was the best predictor of mortality, closely followed by the Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin and Albumin-Bilirubin scores. Albumin levels alone also showed high relevance. Other scores, such as C-Reactive Protein/albumin and Child-Pugh performed less effectively. XGB proved to be the most accurate method across the metrics analyzed, outperforming other ML algorithms. In conclusion, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin and Albumin-Bilirubin scores are highly reliable for assessing survival at HCC diagnosis. The XGB-developed model proved to be the most reliable for this purpose compared to the other proposed methods.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) currently represents the predominant cause of chronic liver disease and is closely linked to a significant increase in the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even in the absence of liver cirrhosis. In this retrospective multicenter study, machine learning (ML) methods were employed to investigate the relationship between metabolic profile and prognosis at diagnosis in a total of 219 HCC patients. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) method demonstrated superiority in identifying mortality predictors in our patients. Etiology was the most determining prognostic factor followed by Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) classifications. Variables related to the development of hepatic steatosis and metabolic syndrome, such as elevated levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), uric acid, obesity, alcohol consumption, and high blood pressure (HBP), had a significant impact on mortality prediction. This study underscores the importance of metabolic syndrome as a determining factor in the progression of HCC secondary to MASLD. The use of ML techniques provides an effective tool to improve risk stratification and individualized therapeutic management in these patients.

Background/Objectives: The epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is shifting, with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) becoming leading causes in developed countries. This study aimed to identify the main prognostic factors for mortality at diagnosis in HCC patients with ALD and MASLD using machine learning (ML) algorithms. Random Forest (RF) was proposed as reference method. Methods: A multicenter, retrospective cohort of 91 patients diagnosed with HCC due to ALD or MASLD between 2008 and 2023 was analyzed. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical variables were collected. Several ML algorithms were implemented: RF, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, and K-Nearest Neighbors. Bayesian optimization was applied for hyperparameter tuning. Model performance was evaluated using standard metrics including AUC, precision, recall, and F1 score. Results: RF achieved the highest performance across all metrics (AUC: 0.91, precision: 90.67%, F1 score: 91.05%), surpassing other algorithms by over 10%. The most relevant variables for mortality prediction were serum albumin, CRP/albumin ratio, BCLC stage, and ALBI score. MELD 3.0 showed superior predictive value compared to other MELD variants. Conversely, AFP had limited prognostic utility in this population. Conclusions: In HCC patients related to ALD and MASLD, liver function and systemic inflammation markers outperform tumor markers for early mortality prediction. In this cohort, RF offered the highest predictive performance among the evaluated algorithms and may support personalized prognosis in ALD- and MASLD-related HCC; however, external validation in independent datasets is required before broad clinical implementation.