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Roger Jones. Final Response to Referee 1. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleRoger Jones. Final Response to Referee 1. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger Jones. 2020. "Final Response to Referee 1." , no. : 1.
Roger Jones. Final Response to Referee 2. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleRoger Jones. Final Response to Referee 2. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger Jones. 2020. "Final Response to Referee 2." , no. : 1.
Roger Jones. Reply to Short Comments. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleRoger Jones. Reply to Short Comments. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger Jones. 2020. "Reply to Short Comments." , no. : 1.
Roger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. Supplementary material to "The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator". 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones, James H. Ricketts. Supplementary material to "The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator". . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. 2019. "Supplementary material to "The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator"." , no. : 1.
Climate change is routinely represented as a smoothly changing signal surrounded by statistical noise. However, on decadal timescales, warming proceeds as a sequence of steady-state regimes punctuated by abrupt shifts. Here we present evidence that this process is regulated by a heat engine spanning the tropical Pacific Ocean. The eastern-central Pacific maintains steady-state conditions, collecting heat and delivering it to the Western Pacific warm pool. This acts as distributor, transporting heat upwards and to the poles. The heat engine is networked within the climate system, linking different oscillations and circulations as heat energy is dissipated. The process is self-regulating. Steady-state regimes will persist until they become unstable and need more or less power depending on the direction of forcing. Under greenhouse gas forcing, shifts initiated within the heat engine propagate broadly across the shallow ocean, followed by warming over land and at higher latitudes. The heat engine was in free mode during the early 20th century, dominated by decadal variability. From the 1960s, it switched into forced mode, initiating a stepladder-like pattern of warming in regional and global climate. The most recent shift commenced in the warm pool in December 2012, ending the so-called hiatus (1997–2013). During 2014–15, surface temperatures warmed abruptly by ~ 0.25 °C globally and > 0.5 °C over northern hemisphere land and high latitudes. With increasing forcing, the heat engine will shift more frequently. Rapid decreases in greenhouse gas emissions will slow the process and potentially, could stabilise it. Managing unavoidable change requires developing the capacity to predict shifts in advance. Planning for rapid changes in extreme events is an urgent priority.
Roger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator. 2019, 2019, 1 -42.
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones, James H. Ricketts. The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator. . 2019; 2019 ():1-42.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. 2019. "The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator." 2019, no. : 1-42.
Interactions between externally forced and internally generated climate variations on decadal timescales is a major determinant of changing climate risk. Severe testing is applied to observed global and regional surface and satellite temperatures and modelled surface temperatures to determine whether these interactions are independent, as in the traditional signal-to-noise model, or whether they interact, resulting in step-like warming. The multistep bivariate test is used to detect step changes in temperature data. The resulting data are then subject to six tests designed to distinguish between the two statistical hypotheses, hstep and htrend. Test 1: since the mid-20th century, most observed warming has taken place in four events: in 1979/80 and 1997/98 at the global scale, 1988/89 in the Northern Hemisphere and 1968–70 in the Southern Hemisphere. Temperature is more step-like than trend-like on a regional basis. Satellite temperature is more step-like than surface temperature. Warming from internal trends is less than 40 % of the total for four of five global records tested (1880–2013/14). Test 2: correlations between step-change frequency in observations and models (1880–2005) are 0.32 (CMIP3) and 0.34 (CMIP5). For the period 1950–2005, grouping selected events (1963/64, 1968–70, 1976/77, 1979/80, 1987/88 and 1996–98), the correlation increases to 0.78. Test 3: steps and shifts (steps minus internal trends) from a 107-member climate model ensemble (2006–2095) explain total warming and equilibrium climate sensitivity better than internal trends. Test 4: in three regions tested, the change between stationary and non-stationary temperatures is step-like and attributable to external forcing. Test 5: step-like changes are also present in tide gauge observations, rainfall, ocean heat content and related variables. Test 6: across a selection of tests, a simple stepladder model better represents the internal structures of warming than a simple trend, providing strong evidence that the climate system is exhibiting complex system behaviour on decadal timescales. This model indicates that in situ warming of the atmosphere does not occur; instead, a store-and-release mechanism from the ocean to the atmosphere is proposed. It is physically plausible and theoretically sound. The presence of step-like – rather than gradual – warming is important information for characterising and managing future climate risk.
Roger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales. Earth System Dynamics 2017, 8, 177 -210.
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones, James H. Ricketts. Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales. Earth System Dynamics. 2017; 8 (1):177-210.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. 2017. "Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales." Earth System Dynamics 8, no. 1: 177-210.
Interactions between externally-forced and internally-generated climate variations on decadal timescales is a major determinant of changing climate risk. Severe testing is applied to observed global and regional surface and satellite temperatures and modelled surface temperatures to determine whether these interactions are independent, as in the traditional signal-to-noise model, or whether they interact, resulting in steplike warming. The multi-step bivariate test is used to detect step changes in temperature data. The resulting data are then subject to six tests designed to show strong differences between the two statistical hypotheses, hstep and htrend: (1) Since the mid-20th century, most of the observed warming has taken place in four events: in 1979/80 and 1997/98 at the global scale, 1988/89 in the northern hemisphere and 1968/70 in the southern hemisphere. Temperature is more steplike than trend-like on a regional basis. Satellite temperature is more steplike than surface temperature. Warming from internal trends is less than 40 % of the total for four of five global records tested (1880–2013/14). (2) Correlations between step-change frequency in models and observations (1880–2005), are 0.32 (CMIP3) and 0.34 (CMIP5). For the period 1950–2005, grouping selected events (1963/64, 1968–70, 1976/77, 1979/80, 1987/88 and 1996–98), correlation increases to 0.78. (3) Steps and shifts (steps minus internal trends) from a 107-member climate model ensemble 2006–2095 explain total warming and equilibrium climate sensitivity better than internal trends. (4) In three regions tested, the change between stationary and non-stationary temperatures is steplike and attributable to external forcing. (5) Steplike changes are also present in tide gauge observations, rainfall, ocean heat content, forest fire danger index and related variables. (6) Across a selection of tests, a simple stepladder model better represents the internal structures of warming than a simple trend – strong evidence that the climate system is exhibiting complex system behaviour on decadal timescales. This model indicates that in situ warming of the atmosphere does not occur; instead, a store-and-release mechanism from the ocean to the atmosphere is proposed. It is physically plausible and theoretically sound. The presence of steplike – rather than gradual – warming is important information for characterising and managing future climate risk.
Roger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales. 2016, 2016, 1 -52.
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones, James H. Ricketts. Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales. . 2016; 2016 ():1-52.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. 2016. "Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales." 2016, no. : 1-52.
Roger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. Supplementary material to "Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales". 2016, 1 .
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones, James H. Ricketts. Supplementary material to "Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales". . 2016; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones; James H. Ricketts. 2016. "Supplementary material to "Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales"." , no. : 1.
One-dimensional simple climate models (SCMs) play an important role within a hierarchy of climate models. They have largely been used to investigate alternative emission scenarios and estimate global-mean temperature change. This role has expanded through the incorporation of techniques that include Monte Carlo methods and Bayesian statistics, adding the ability to generate probabilistic temperature change projections and diagnose key uncertainties, including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The latter is the most influential parameter within this class of models where it is ordinarily prescribed, rather than being an emergent property. A series of recent papers based on SCMs and Bayesian statistical methods have endeavored to estimate ECS by using instrumental observations and results from other more complex models to constrain the parameter space. Distributions for ECS depend on a variety of parameters, such as ocean diffusivity and aerosol forcing, so that conclusions cannot be drawn without reference to the joint parameter distribution. Results are affected by the treatment of natural variability, observational uncertainty, and the parameter space being explored. In addition, the highly simplified nature of SCMs means that they contain a number of implicit assumptions that do not necessarily reflect adequately the true nature of Earth's nonlinear quasi-chaotic climate system. Differences in the best estimate and range for ECS may be partly due to variations in the structure of the SCMs reviewed in this study, along with the selection of data and the calibration details, including the choice of priors. Further investigations and model intercomparisons are needed to clarify these issues. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:461–473. doi: 10.1002/wcc.397 This article is categorized under:
Roger W. Bodman; Roger Jones. Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models. WIREs Climate Change 2016, 7, 461 -473.
AMA StyleRoger W. Bodman, Roger Jones. Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models. WIREs Climate Change. 2016; 7 (3):461-473.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger W. Bodman; Roger Jones. 2016. "Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models." WIREs Climate Change 7, no. 3: 461-473.
Carbon cycle uncertainties associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature-change projections were treated differently between the Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports as the latter focused on concentration- rather than emission-driven experiments. Carbon cycle feedbacks then relate to the emissions consistent with a particular concentration. A valuable alternative is to include all uncertainties in a single step from emissions to temperatures. We use a simple climate model with an observationally constrained parameter distribution to explore the carbon cycle and temperature-change projections, simulating the emission-driven Representative Concentration Pathways. The resulting range of uncertainty is a somewhat wider and asymmetric likely range (biased high).
Roger W. Bodman; Peter J. Rayner; Roger N. Jones. How do carbon cycle uncertainties affect IPCC temperature projections? Atmospheric Science Letters 2016, 17, 236 -242.
AMA StyleRoger W. Bodman, Peter J. Rayner, Roger N. Jones. How do carbon cycle uncertainties affect IPCC temperature projections? Atmospheric Science Letters. 2016; 17 (3):236-242.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger W. Bodman; Peter J. Rayner; Roger N. Jones. 2016. "How do carbon cycle uncertainties affect IPCC temperature projections?" Atmospheric Science Letters 17, no. 3: 236-242.
In an effort to increase the livability of its cities, public agencies in Australia are investing in green infrastructure to improve public health, reduce heat island effects and transition toward water sensitive urban design. In this paper, we present a simple and replicable approach to building a business case for green infrastructure. This approach requires much less time and resources compared to other methods for estimating the social and economic returns to society from such investments. It is a pragmatic, reasonably comprehensive approach that includes socio-demographic profile of potential users and catchment analysis to assess the economic value of community benefits of the investment. The approach has been applied to a case study area in the City of Brimbank, a western suburb of Greater Melbourne. We find that subject to a set of assumptions, a reasonable business case can be made. We estimate potential public benefits of avoided health costs of about AU$75,049 per annum and potential private benefits of AU$3.9 million. The project area is one of the most poorly serviced areas in the municipality in terms of quality open spaces and the potential beneficiaries are from relatively low income households with less than average health status and education levels. The values of cultural (recreational benefits, avoided health costs, and increased property values) and regulating (reduction in heat island effect and carbon sequestration) ecosystem services were quantified that can potentially offset annual maintenance costs.
Gayathri Devi Mekala; Roger N Jones; Darla Hatton Macdonald. Valuing the Benefits of Creek Rehabilitation: Building a Business Case for Public Investments in Urban Green Infrastructure. Environmental Management 2015, 55, 1354 -1365.
AMA StyleGayathri Devi Mekala, Roger N Jones, Darla Hatton Macdonald. Valuing the Benefits of Creek Rehabilitation: Building a Business Case for Public Investments in Urban Green Infrastructure. Environmental Management. 2015; 55 (6):1354-1365.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGayathri Devi Mekala; Roger N Jones; Darla Hatton Macdonald. 2015. "Valuing the Benefits of Creek Rehabilitation: Building a Business Case for Public Investments in Urban Green Infrastructure." Environmental Management 55, no. 6: 1354-1365.
This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Bas J. Van Ruijven; Marc Levy; Arun Agrawal; Frank Biermann; Joern Birkmann; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie L. Ebi; Matthias Garschagen; Bryan Jones; Roger Jones; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Marcel Kok; Kasper Kok; Maria Carmen Lemos; Paul Lucas; Ben Orlove; Shonali Pachauri; Tom M. Parris; Anand Patwardhan; Arthur Petersen; Benjamin Preston; Jesse Ribot; Dale S. Rothman; Vanessa J. Schweizer. Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Climatic Change 2013, 122, 481 -494.
AMA StyleBas J. Van Ruijven, Marc Levy, Arun Agrawal, Frank Biermann, Joern Birkmann, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Matthias Garschagen, Bryan Jones, Roger Jones, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Marcel Kok, Kasper Kok, Maria Carmen Lemos, Paul Lucas, Ben Orlove, Shonali Pachauri, Tom M. Parris, Anand Patwardhan, Arthur Petersen, Benjamin Preston, Jesse Ribot, Dale S. Rothman, Vanessa J. Schweizer. Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Climatic Change. 2013; 122 (3):481-494.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBas J. Van Ruijven; Marc Levy; Arun Agrawal; Frank Biermann; Joern Birkmann; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie L. Ebi; Matthias Garschagen; Bryan Jones; Roger Jones; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Marcel Kok; Kasper Kok; Maria Carmen Lemos; Paul Lucas; Ben Orlove; Shonali Pachauri; Tom M. Parris; Anand Patwardhan; Arthur Petersen; Benjamin Preston; Jesse Ribot; Dale S. Rothman; Vanessa J. Schweizer. 2013. "Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research." Climatic Change 122, no. 3: 481-494.
The management of the water resources of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) has long been contested, and the effects of the recent Millennium drought and subsequent flooding events have generated acute contests over the appropriate allocation of water supplies to agricultural, domestic and environmental uses. This water-availability crisis has driven demand for improved knowledge of climate change trends, cycles of variability, the range of historical climates experienced by natural systems and the ecological health of the system relative to a past benchmark. A considerable volume of research on the past climates of southeastern Australia has been produced over recent decades, but much of this work has focused on longer geological time-scales, and is of low temporal resolution. Less evidence has been generated of recent climate change at the level of resolution that accesses the cycles of change relevant to management. Intra-decadal and near-annual resolution (high-resolution) records do exist and provide evidence of climate change and variability, and of human impact on systems, relevant to natural-resource management. There exist now many research groups using a range of proxy indicators of climate that will rapidly escalate our knowledge of management-relevant, climate change and variability. This review assembles available climate and catchment change research within, and in the vicinity of, the MDB and portrays the research activities that are responding to the knowledge need. It also discusses how paleoclimate scientists may better integrate their pursuits into the resource-management realm to enhance the utility of the science, the effectiveness of the management measures and the outcomes for the end users.
K. Mills; P. Gell; Joelle Gergis; P. J. Baker; C. M. Finlayson; P. P. Hesse; Roger Jones; P. Kershaw; S. Pearson; P. C. Treble; C. Barr; M. Brookhouse; Russell Drysdale; J. McDonald; Simon Haberle; Michael Reid; Martin Thoms; J. Tibby. Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin II: unravelling human impacts and climate variability. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 2013, 60, 561 -571.
AMA StyleK. Mills, P. Gell, Joelle Gergis, P. J. Baker, C. M. Finlayson, P. P. Hesse, Roger Jones, P. Kershaw, S. Pearson, P. C. Treble, C. Barr, M. Brookhouse, Russell Drysdale, J. McDonald, Simon Haberle, Michael Reid, Martin Thoms, J. Tibby. Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin II: unravelling human impacts and climate variability. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences. 2013; 60 (5):561-571.
Chicago/Turabian StyleK. Mills; P. Gell; Joelle Gergis; P. J. Baker; C. M. Finlayson; P. P. Hesse; Roger Jones; P. Kershaw; S. Pearson; P. C. Treble; C. Barr; M. Brookhouse; Russell Drysdale; J. McDonald; Simon Haberle; Michael Reid; Martin Thoms; J. Tibby. 2013. "Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin II: unravelling human impacts and climate variability." Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 60, no. 5: 561-571.
This paper provides an incisive review of paleoclimate science and its relevance to natural-resource management within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The drought of 1997–2010 focussed scientific, public and media attention on intrinsic climate variability and the confounding effect of human activity, especially in terms of water-resource management. Many policy and research reviews make statements about future planning with little consideration of climate change and without useful actionable knowledge. In order to understand future climate changes, modellers need, and demand, better paleoclimate data to constrain their model projections. Here, we present an insight into a number of existing long-term paleoclimate studies relevant to the MDB. Past records of climate, in response to orbital forcing (glacial–interglacial cycles) are found within, and immediately outside, the MDB. High-resolution temperature records, spanning the last 105 years, exist from floodplains and cave speleothems, as well as evidence from lakes and their associated lunettes. More recently, historical climate records show major changes in relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles and decadal shifts in rainfall regimes. A considerable body of research currently exists on the past climates of southeastern Australia but, this has not been collated and validated over large spatial scales. It is clear that a number of knowledge gaps still exist, and there is a pressing need for the establishment of new paleoclimatic research within the MDB catchment and within adjacent, sensitive catchments if past climate science is to fulfil its potential to provide policy-relevant information to natural-resource management into the future.
K. Mills; Peter Gell; Paul Hesse; Roger Jones; Peter Kershaw; Russell Drysdale; J. McDonald. Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin I: past, present and future climates. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 2013, 60, 547 -560.
AMA StyleK. Mills, Peter Gell, Paul Hesse, Roger Jones, Peter Kershaw, Russell Drysdale, J. McDonald. Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin I: past, present and future climates. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences. 2013; 60 (5):547-560.
Chicago/Turabian StyleK. Mills; Peter Gell; Paul Hesse; Roger Jones; Peter Kershaw; Russell Drysdale; J. McDonald. 2013. "Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin I: past, present and future climates." Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 60, no. 5: 547-560.
[1] Nonlinear anthropogenic warming is detected and attributed as a series of step changes in observed and simulated climate for southeastern Australia (SEA). A stationary period of 1910–1967 and non‐stationary period of 1968–2010 was established using statistically significant step‐changes (pH0 < 0.01) in the relationship between observed minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature (0.6°C in 1968) and Tmax and rainfall (P; 0.7°C in 1997). Regressions between these pairings during stationary conditions were used to determine how Tmin and Tmax would have evolved under non‐stationary conditions. Assuming these relationships remain constant, the resulting residuals were attributed to anthropogenic regional warming. This warming was initiated as step changes in 1968 forTmin (0.7°C) and 1973 for Tmax (0.5°C), coinciding with step changes in zonal (24–44°S) and southern hemisphere mean air temperatures (Tav). A step change in 1997 in Tmax (0.8°C) coincided with a statistically significant step change in global mean air temperature of 0.3°C. This analysis was repeated using regionally averaged output from eleven climate model simulations. Regional warming in all models commenced with step changes in Tmin ranging from 0.4 to 0.7°C between 1964 and 2003. Tmax underwent step changes ranging from 0.7 to 1.1°C simultaneously or within several decades. Further step changes, combined with rising trends, were simulated under increasing radiative forcing to 2100. This highlights limitations in the current use of the signal‐to‐noise model that considers anthropogenic climate change as a monotonic curve. The identification of multiple step changes in a changing climate provides important information for planning adaptation.
Roger N. Jones. Detecting and attributing nonlinear anthropogenic regional warming in southeastern Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research 2012, 117, 1 .
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones. Detecting and attributing nonlinear anthropogenic regional warming in southeastern Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2012; 117 (D4):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones. 2012. "Detecting and attributing nonlinear anthropogenic regional warming in southeastern Australia." Journal of Geophysical Research 117, no. D4: 1.
Salt lakes are significant landscape features in Australia. The three studied lakes, in particular, are recognized as being of national (Gnotuk) and international significance (Keilambete, Bullenmerri) for their ecological, social, and scientific values. The lake levels have been declining since the mid-1800s, the likely cause being a natural climate-driven decrease in precipitation and increase in evaporation. With the prospect of human-induced climate change further altering regional climate, this article presents a framework and results for assessing the impacts and risks of climate change on lake levels and salinity. A lake water balance model was applied with the inputs of climate observations and modeled future climate variables. The latter are generated from 14 general circulation model simulations used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The resulting scenarios represent the range of likely outcomes of regional climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions to year 2100. Models project that all lake levels are likely to continue to decline, with the declines for Bullenmerri expected to exceed those of the other two lakes. The salinity in the lakes is likely to increase, with the rate of increase likely to become more rapid over time. Some implications of these findings are discussed.
D. G. C. Kirono; D. M. Kent; R. N. Jones; P. J. Leahy. Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Risks on Three Salt Lakes in Western Victoria, Australia. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 2012, 18, 152 -167.
AMA StyleD. G. C. Kirono, D. M. Kent, R. N. Jones, P. J. Leahy. Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Risks on Three Salt Lakes in Western Victoria, Australia. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal. 2012; 18 (1):152-167.
Chicago/Turabian StyleD. G. C. Kirono; D. M. Kent; R. N. Jones; P. J. Leahy. 2012. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Risks on Three Salt Lakes in Western Victoria, Australia." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 18, no. 1: 152-167.
The latest iteration of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uncertainty guidance is simpler and easier to use than the previous version. However, its primary focus remains assessing “what is at risk” under climate change, thus is most suitable for dealing with the scientific uncertainties in Working Group I and part of Working Group II findings. I distinguish between tame and complex risks, arguing that the guidance is most suited to assessing tame risks. Climate change is a complex risk, and as such as can be divided into idealized, calculated and perceived risks. While science has claims to objectivity, risk has a specific value component: when measuring gain and loss, calculated risks compete with risky options to manage those risks. The IPCC is charged with calculating risk (IPCC , p22) but the communication of key findings takes place in an environment of competing perceived risks. Recommendations for managing this complex environment include separating scientific and risk-based findings, treating uncertainties for each separately; strengthening the philosophical basis of uncertainty management; application of a methodical scientific research program; clearly communicating competing findings, especially in the social sciences; and application of multiple frame to policy-relevant findings as reflected in the literature.
Roger N. Jones. The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective. Climatic Change 2011, 108, 733 -743.
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones. The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective. Climatic Change. 2011; 108 (4):733-743.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones. 2011. "The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective." Climatic Change 108, no. 4: 733-743.
The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic (global) climate change are widely known. Less well considered is the contributing role of conditions local to the reef, in particular reef water quality, in co-determining the physiological tolerance of corals to increasing sea temperatures and declining pH. Here, the modelled benefit of reduced exposure to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in terrestrial runoff, which raises the thermal tolerance of coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia), is considered alongside alternative future warming scenarios. The simulations highlight that an 80% reduction in DIN ‘buys’ an additional ~50–60 years of reef-building capacity for No Mitigation (‘business-as-usual’) bleaching projections. Moreover, the integrated management benefits provided by: (i) local reductions of ~50% in DIN contained in river loads, and (ii) global stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 below 450 ppm can help ensure the persistence of hard-coral-dominated reefscapes beyond 2100. The simulations reinforce the message that beyond the global imperative to mitigate future atmospheric CO2 emissions there still remains the need for effective local management actions that enhance the resistance and resilience of coral reef communities to the impacts of climate change.
Scott Andrew Wooldridge; Terence J. Done; Colette R. Thomas; Iain Gordon; Paul A. Marshall; Roger Jones. Safeguarding coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia) against climate change: realizable local and global actions. Climatic Change 2011, 112, 945 -961.
AMA StyleScott Andrew Wooldridge, Terence J. Done, Colette R. Thomas, Iain Gordon, Paul A. Marshall, Roger Jones. Safeguarding coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia) against climate change: realizable local and global actions. Climatic Change. 2011; 112 (3):945-961.
Chicago/Turabian StyleScott Andrew Wooldridge; Terence J. Done; Colette R. Thomas; Iain Gordon; Paul A. Marshall; Roger Jones. 2011. "Safeguarding coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia) against climate change: realizable local and global actions." Climatic Change 112, no. 3: 945-961.
Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top‐down and bottom‐up, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top‐down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. A broad range of material from within and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk, especially through a risk management framework, can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 296–308 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.97For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website
Roger N. Jones; Benjamin Preston. Adaptation and risk management. WIREs Climate Change 2011, 2, 296 -308.
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones, Benjamin Preston. Adaptation and risk management. WIREs Climate Change. 2011; 2 (2):296-308.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones; Benjamin Preston. 2011. "Adaptation and risk management." WIREs Climate Change 2, no. 2: 296-308.
North central Victoria has experienced significant natural climate change over the past 20 000 years. At the height of the last ice age, the region was colder by 5°C or more with uplands and slopes under subalpine vegetation. Modern vegetation patterns were not established until the early Holocene. The first half of the Holocene was wetter than today, while the second half was affected by a less stable climate influenced by a strengthening El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Climate immediately prior to European occupation may have been wetter than during the historical period. Thus the pre-European climate and land surface influences on regional water balance may have been different to that which is generally assumed. Climate during the historical period was statistically homogenous, but with drier and wetter periods. Modest warming began in the mid 20th century, by about 0.4°C per century from 1950 to 1996. From 1997, maximum temperature has undergone a significant upward step change (p>0.01) of 0.9°C. Rainfall has decreased by 19%, with May–October rainfall undergoing a significant (p=0.05) downward step change from 2000. Maximum temperature is now non-stationary with respect to rainfall and is experiencing an upward trend consistent with climate model projections. These changes are equal to or greater than those projected for 2030, and are significantly affecting agriculture and forestry, ecosystems, fire risk and water resources. Evidence from pre-historic, historic and model projections of future climate for this region suggest that climate change can often be abrupt, with ‘stable’ periods showing considerable decadal variability. Prudent risk management would treat the post 1996 climate as the new baseline and plan for further changes.
Roger N. Jones. North central Victorian climate: past, present and future. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria 2010, 122, 147 -160.
AMA StyleRoger N. Jones. North central Victorian climate: past, present and future. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria. 2010; 122 (2):147-160.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoger N. Jones. 2010. "North central Victorian climate: past, present and future." Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria 122, no. 2: 147-160.