Geographically-explicit simulations have become crucial in understanding cities and are playing an important role in Urban Science. One such approach is that of agent-based modeling which allows us to explore how agents interact with the environment and each other (e.g., social networks), and how through such interactions aggregate patterns emerge (e.g., disease outbreaks, traffic jams). While the use of agent-based modeling has grown, one challenge remains, that of creating realistic, geographically-explicit, synthetic populations which incorporate social networks. To address this challenge, this paper presents a novel method to create a synthetic population which incorporates social networks using the New York Metro Area as a test area. To demonstrate the generalizability of our synthetic population method and data to initialize models, three different types of agent-based models are introduced to explore a variety of urban problems: traffic, disaster response, and the spread of disease. These use cases not only demonstrate how our geographically-explicit synthetic population can be easily utilized for initializing agent populations which can explore a variety of urban problems, but also show how social networks can be integrated into such populations and large-scale simulations.
Increasingly urbanized populations and climate change have shifted the focus of decision makers from economic growth to the sustainability and resilience of urban infrastructure and communities, especially when communities face multiple hazards and need to recover from recurring disasters. Understanding human behavior and its interactions with built environments in disasters requires disciplinary crossover to explain its complexity, therefore we apply the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) to review disaster studies across disciplines. Disasters can be understood to consist of three interacting systems: (1) the physical system, consisting of geological, ecological, and human-built systems; (2) the social system, consisting of informal and formal human collective behavior; and (3) the individual actor system. Exploration of human behavior in these systems shows that CAS properties of heterogeneity, interacting subsystems, emergence, adaptation, and learning are integral, not just to cities, but to disaster studies and connecting them in the CAS framework provides us with a new lens to study disasters across disciplines. This paper explores the theories and models used in disaster studies, provides a framework to study and explain disasters, and discusses how complex adaptive systems can support theory building in disaster science for promoting more sustainable and resilient cities.
24 February 2009 in International Journal of Social Robotics
Disaster events and their economic impacts are trending, and climate projection studies suggest that the risks of disaster will continue to increase in the near future. Despite the broad and increasing social effects of these events, the empirical basis of disaster research is often weak, partially due to the natural paucity of observed data. At the same time, some of the early research regarding social responses to disasters have become outdated as social, cultural, and political norms have changed. The digital revolution, the open data trend, and the advancements in data science provide new opportunities for social science disaster research. We introduce the term computational social science of disasters (CSSD), which can be formally defined as the systematic study of the social behavioral dynamics of disasters utilizing computational methods. In this paper, we discuss and showcase the opportunities and the challenges in this new approach to disaster research. Following a brief review of the fields that relate to CSSD, namely traditional social sciences of disasters, computational social science, and crisis informatics, we examine how advances in Internet technologies offer a new lens through which to study disasters. By identifying gaps in the literature, we show how this new field could address ways to advance our understanding of the social and behavioral aspects of disasters in a digitally connected world. In doing so, our goal is to bridge the gap between data science and the social sciences of disasters in rapidly changing environments.
10 October 2019 in ACM Transactions on Interactive Intelligent Systems
A proposal for a unified theory of learned trust implemented in a cognitive architecture is presented. The theory is instantiated as a computational cognitive model of learned trust that integrates several seemingly unrelated categories of findings from the literature on interpersonal and human-machine interactions and makes unintuitive predictions for future studies. The model relies on a combination of learning mechanisms to explain a variety of phenomena such as trust asymmetry, the higher impact of early trust breaches, the black-hat/white-hat effect, the correlation between trust and cognitive ability, and the higher resilience of interpersonal as compared to human-machine trust. In addition, the model predicts that trust decays in the absence of evidence of trustworthiness or untrustworthiness. The implications of the model for the advancement of the theory on trust are discussed. Specifically, this work suggests two more trust antecedents on the trustor's side: perceived trust necessity and cognitive ability to detect cues of trustworthiness.