Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

In phase 2 studies, treatment with the all-oral combination of the nucleotide polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir and the NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir resulted in high rates of sustained virologic response among previously untreated patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection. We conducted a phase 3, open-label study involving previously untreated patients with chronic HCV genotype 1 infection. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to receive ledipasvir and sofosbuvir in a fixed-dose combination tablet once daily for 12 weeks, ledipasvir–sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for 12 weeks, ledipasvir–sofosbuvir for 24 weeks, or ledipasvir–sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for 24 weeks. The primary end point was a sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after the end of therapy. Of the 865 patients who underwent randomization and were treated, 16% had cirrhosis, 12% were black, and 67% had HCV genotype 1a infection. The rates of sustained virologic response were 99% (95% confidence interval [CI], 96 to 100) in the group that received 12 weeks of ledipasvir–sofosbuvir; 97% (95% CI, 94 to 99) in the group that received 12 weeks of ledipasvir–sofosbuvir plus ribavirin; 98% (95% CI, 95 to 99) in the group that received 24 weeks of ledipasvir–sofosbuvir; and 99% (95% CI, 97 to 100) in the group that received 24 weeks of ledipasvir–sofosbuvir plus ribavirin. No patient in either 12-week group discontinued ledipasvir–sofosbuvir owing to an adverse event. The most common adverse events were fatigue, headache, insomnia, and nausea. Once-daily ledipasvir–sofosbuvir with or without ribavirin for 12 or 24 weeks was highly effective in previously untreated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection. (Funded by Gilead Sciences; ION-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01701401.)

Background & Aims Elafibranor is an agonist of the peroxisome proliferator−activated receptor-α and peroxisome proliferator−activated receptor-δ. Elafibranor improves insulin sensitivity, glucose homeostasis, and lipid metabolism and reduces inflammation. We assessed the safety and efficacy of elafibranor in an international, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Methods Patients with NASH without cirrhosis were randomly assigned to groups given elafibranor 80 mg (n = 93), elafibranor 120 mg (n = 91), or placebo (n = 92) each day for 52 weeks at sites in Europe and the United States. Clinical and laboratory evaluations were performed every 2 months during this 1-year period. Liver biopsies were then collected and patients were assessed 3 months later. The primary outcome was resolution of NASH without fibrosis worsening, using protocol-defined and modified definitions. Data from the groups given the different doses of elafibranor were compared with those from the placebo group using step-down logistic regression, adjusting for baseline nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score. Results In intention-to-treat analysis, there was no significant difference between the elafibranor and placebo groups in the protocol-defined primary outcome. However, NASH resolved without fibrosis worsening in a higher proportion of patients in the 120-mg elafibranor group vs the placebo group (19% vs 12%; odds ratio = 2.31; 95% confidence interval: 1.02−5.24; P = .045), based on a post-hoc analysis for the modified definition. In post-hoc analyses of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score ≥4 (n = 234), elafibranor 120 mg resolved NASH in larger proportions of patients than placebo based on the protocol definition (20% vs 11%; odds ratio = 3.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.22−8.13; P = .018) and the modified definitions (19% vs 9%; odds ratio = 3.52; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–9.40; P = .013). Patients with NASH resolution after receiving elafibranor 120 mg had reduced liver fibrosis stages compared with those without NASH resolution (mean reduction of 0.65 ± 0.61 in responders for the primary outcome vs an increase of 0.10 ± 0.98 in nonresponders; P < .001). Liver enzymes, lipids, glucose profiles, and markers of systemic inflammation were significantly reduced in the elafibranor 120-mg group vs the placebo group. Elafibranor was well tolerated and did not cause weight gain or cardiac events, but did produce a mild, reversible increase in serum creatinine (effect size vs placebo: increase of 4.31 ± 1.19 μmol/L; P < .001). Conclusions A post-hoc analysis of data from trial of patients with NASH showed that elafibranor (120 mg/d for 1 year) resolved NASH without fibrosis worsening, based on a modified definition, in the intention-to-treat analysis and in patients with moderate or severe NASH. However, the predefined end point was not met in the intention to treat population. Elafibranor was well tolerated and improved patients’ cardiometabolic risk profile. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01694849.