Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common type of chronic liver disease worldwide and includes a broad spectrum of histologic phenotypes, ranging from simple hepatic steatosis or nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). While liver biopsy is the reference gold standard for NAFLD diagnosis and staging, it has limitations due to its sampling variability, invasive nature, and high cost. Thus, there is a need for noninvasive biomarkers that are robust, reliable, and cost effective. In this study, we measured 540 lipids and amino acids in serum samples from biopsy‐proven subjects with normal liver (NL), NAFL, and NASH. Using logistic regression analysis, we identified two panels of triglycerides that could first discriminate between NAFLD and NL and second between NASH and NAFL. These noninvasive tests were compared to blinded histology as a reference standard. We performed these tests in an original cohort of 467 patients with NAFLD (90 NL, 246 NAFL, and 131 NASH) that was subsequently validated in a separate cohort of 192 patients (7 NL, 109 NAFL, 76 NASH). The diagnostic performances of the validated tests showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.88 ± 0.05, 0.94, and 0.57, respectively, for the discrimination between NAFLD and NL and 0.79 ± 0.04, 0.70, and 0.81, respectively, for the discrimination between NASH and NAFL. When the analysis was performed excluding patients with glucose levels >136 mg/dL, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the discrimination between NASH and NAFL increased to 0.81 ± 0.04 with sensitivity and specificity of 0.73 and 0.80, respectively. Conclusion: The assessed noninvasive lipidomic serum tests distinguish between NAFLD and NL and between NASH and NAFL with high accuracy. (Hepatology Communications 2018;2:807‐820)

Background: Early identification of those with NAFLD activity score ≥ 4 and significant fibrosis (≥F2) or at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is a priority as these patients are at increased risk for disease progression and may benefit from therapies. We developed and validated a highly specific metabolomics-driven score to identify at-risk MASH. Methods: We included derivation (n = 790) and validation (n = 565) cohorts from international tertiary centers. Patients underwent laboratory assessment and liver biopsy for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. Based on 12 lipids, body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase, the MASEF score was developed to identify at-risk MASH and compared to the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score. We further compared the performance of a FIB-4 + MASEF algorithm to that of FIB-4 + liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). Results: The diagnostic performance of the MASEF score showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.79), 0.69, 0.74, 0.53, and 0.85 in the derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.83), 0.78, 0.65, 0.48, and 0.88 in the validation cohort, while FibroScan-AST performance in the validation cohort was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68–0.79; p = 0.064), 0.58, 0.79, 0.67, and 0.73, respectively. FIB-4+MASEF showed similar overall performance compared with FIB-4 + LSM by VCTE (p = 0.69) to identify at-risk MASH. Conclusion: MASEF is a promising diagnostic tool for the assessment of at-risk MASH. It could be used alternatively to LSM by VCTE in the algorithm that is currently recommended by several guidance publications.

There is conflicting evidence regarding the prevalence of and risk factors for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to determine MAFLD prevalence and risk factors in IBD patients. Cross-sectional, case-control study included all consecutive IBD patients treated at 2 different university hospitals. Controls were subjects randomly selected from the general population and matched by age, sex, type 2 diabetes status, and body mass index in a 1:2 ratio. MAFLD was confirmed by controlled attenuation parameter. Liver biopsies were collected when MAFLD with significant liver fibrosis was suspected. In addition, age- and fibrosis stage-paired non-IBD patients with biopsy-proven MAFLD served as a secondary control group. Eight hundred thirty-one IBD patients and 1718 controls were included. The prevalence of MAFLD and advanced liver fibrosis (transient elastography ≥9.7 kPa) was 42.00% and 9.50%, respectively, in IBD patients and 32.77% and 2.31%, respectively, in the general population (P < .001). A diagnosis of IBD was an independent predictor of MAFLD (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; P < .001) and an independent risk factor for advanced liver fibrosis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.55; P < .001). Liver biopsies were obtained from 40 IBD patients; MAFLD was confirmed in all cases, and fibrosis of any degree was confirmed in 25 of 40 cases (62.5%). Body mass index and type 2 diabetes prevalence were significantly lower in IBD-MAFLD patients than in severity-paired patients with biopsy-proven MAFLD. MAFLD and liver fibrosis are particularly prevalent in IBD patients, regardless of the influence of classic metabolic risk factors.