This paper reports an analysis of aspects of the project planning stage. The object of research is the decision-making processes that take place at this stage. This work considers the problem of building a hierarchy of tasks, their distribution among performers, taking into account restrictions on financial costs and duration of project implementation. Verbal and mathematical models of the task of constructing a hierarchy of tasks and other tasks that take place at the stage of project planning were constructed. Such indicators of the project implementation process efficiency were introduced as the time, cost, and cost-time efficiency. In order to be able to apply these criteria, the tasks of estimating the minimum value of the duration of the project and its minimum required cost were considered. Appropriate methods have been developed to solve them. The developed iterative method for assessing the minimum duration of project implementation is based on taking into account the possibility of simultaneous execution of various tasks. The method of estimating the minimum cost of the project is to build and solve the problem of Boolean programming. The values obtained as a result of solving these problems form an «ideal point», approaching which is enabled by the developed iterative method of constructing a hierarchy of tasks based on the method of sequential concessions. This method makes it possible to devise options for management decisions to obtain valid solutions to the problem. According to them, the decision maker can introduce a concession on the value of one or both components of the «ideal point» or change the input data to the task. The models and methods built can be used when planning projects in education, science, production, etc.

Management decision-making tasks are usually characterized by a high level of uncertainty. When solving this class of problems, it is necessary to take into account the environmental conditions for the implementation of the decisions made and the consequences that may arise in this case. The decision-making task in the face of uncertainty can be represented in the form of a “game with nature”, in which the optimal player strategy is sought. A two-stage decision-making process is considered, in which at each stage the decision-making problem is solved in conditions of risk. The case is supposed in which, after making a decision at the first stage, choosing an effective alternative and the onset of a certain state of nature, it is necessary to solve the decision-making problem of the second stage. Decision-making models based on well-known decision models of the “game with nature” are proposed. The developed models allow in the process of choosing an effective alternative to the first stage to assess the possible consequences of such a choice, taking into account the expectations of the decision maker. In the course of experimental verification, it is shown that the developed decision-making models can be used to solve such multi-stage problems, the phased solution of which is incorrect. This may occur due to the fact that some of their stages are associated with certain losses, and others – with profit. In such situations, it is advisable to consider the problem as a whole and at each stage, take into account all available information as much as possible.

Designing fuzzy expert methods of numeric evaluation of an object for the problems of forecasting