The first case of dengue fever (DF) in Saudi Arabia appeared in 1993 but by 2022, DF incidence was 11 per 100,000 people. Climatologic and population factors, such as the annual Hajj, likely contribute to DF’s epidemiology in Saudi Arabia. In this study, we assess the impact of these variables on the DF burden of disease in Saudi Arabia and we attempt to create robust DF predictive models. Using 10 years of DF, weather, and pilgrimage data, we conducted a bivariate analysis investigating the role of weather and pilgrimage variables on DF incidence. We also compared the abilities of three different predictive models. Amongst weather variables, temperature and humidity had the strongest associations with DF incidence, while rainfall showed little to no significant relationship. Pilgrimage variables did not have strong associations with DF incidence. The random forest model had the highest predictive ability (R² = 0.62) when previous DF data were withheld, and the ARIMA model was the best (R² = 0.78) when previous DF data were incorporated. We found that a nonlinear machine-learning model incorporating temperature and humidity variables had the best prediction accuracy for DF, regardless of the availability of previous DF data. This finding can inform DF early warning systems and preparedness in Saudi Arabia.

Drowning is a significant public health issue and is considered one of the most avoidable yet underappreciated causes of mortality worldwide. Drowning likely presents a significant public health burden in Saudi Arabia, especially in children. To our knowledge only three studies have been conducted investigating drowning in Saudi Arabia, all of which were single center hospital-based studies. This is the first national cross-sectional study to assess drowning epidemiology in Saudi Arabia and the first to utilize first responder data. This study’s main objectives are to quantify the burden of drowning in Saudi Arabia, and describe the epidemiological profile and geographic distribution of drowning cases across the country. We conducted a cross-sectional study using electronic data from the Saudi Red Crescent Authority (SRCA) on drowning incidents between January 2019 to November 2021. Descriptive statistics such as frequencies and percentages were calculated using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), software for Windows (version 23.0). Men and children under 4 had the highest incidence of drowning, with 2021 incidence rates of 19.86 and 54.08 per million, respectively. The regions of Makkah, Riyadh, and Dammam, had the largest number of cases, accounting for 30.49% (n = 501), 19.84% (n = 326), and 13.02% (n = 214) of all cases respectively. The regions with the highest drowning incidence in 2021 were Tabuk, Al-baha, Makkah, Jizan, and Hail with incidence rates of 32.32, 27. 96, 22.28, 20.97, and 20.5 per million people, respectively. Drowning is a leading cause of death in Saudi Arabia and globally, with young children most at risk. Our study identifies data gaps and high-incidence areas requiring further investigation. The low bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) rate and high mortality call for better public education on drowning prevention and first aid.