A photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting prediction is a crucial stage to utilize the stability, quality, and management of a hybrid power grid due to its dependency on weather conditions. In this paper, a short-term PV forecasting prediction model based on actual operational data collected from the PV experimental prototype installed at the engineering college of Misan University in Iraq is designed using various machine learning techniques. The collected data are initially classified into three diverse groups of atmosphere conditions—sunny, cloudy, and rainy meteorological cases—for various seasons. The data are taken for 3 min intervals to monitor the swift variations in PV power generation caused by atmospheric changes such as cloud movement or sudden changes in sunlight intensity. Then, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used based on the gray wolf optimization (GWO) and genetic algorithm (GA) as learning methods to enhance the prediction of PV energy by optimizing the number of hidden layers and neurons of the ANN model. The Python approach is used to design the forecasting prediction models based on four fitness functions: R2, MAE, RMSE, and MSE. The results suggest that the ANN model based on the GA algorithm accommodates the most accurate PV generation pattern in three different climatic condition tests, outperforming the conventional ANN and GWO-ANN forecasting models, as evidenced by the highest Pearson correlation coefficient values of 0.9574, 0.9347, and 0.8965 under sunny, cloudy, and rainy conditions, respectively.
7 July 2024 in Misan Journal of Engineering Sciences
The prediction of a photovoltaic (PV) energy production over time is considered the major challenge to integrate it with the utilize grid. This is because it is affected by many factors, including geographical locations and weather conditions. Hence, accurately forecasting PV generation is a crucial stage for ensuring a grid stability. In this paper, several studies are discussed between 2015 to 2023 based on various term forecasting conditions. Then, a neural network (NN) is employed to forecast a medium-term PV power generation by gathering meteorological data specific to the southern region of Iraq. The proposed NN model based on Python language is trained to find the PV power prediction for various seasons of the year using solar radiation and surrounding temperature of weather condition tests. While, the MATLAB Simulink model is designed to address the PV actual power for the same tests. The results show that the root mean square error of a PV generation test at autumn season provides the lowest percentage of 92.2119 W when compared with the other three seasons