This study investigates the statistical characteristics of raindrop size distributions (DSDs) in monsoon season with observations collected by the second-generation Particle Size and Velocity (Parsivel²) disdrometer located in Zhuhai, southern China. The characteristics are quantified based on convective and stratiform precipitation classified using the rainfall intensity and total number of drops. On average of the whole dataset, the DSD characteristic in southern China consists of a higher number concentration of relatively small-sized drops when compare with eastern China and northern China, respectively. In the meanwhile, the D_m and log₁₀N_w scatter plots prove that the convective rain in monsoon season can be identified as maritime-like cluster. The DSD is in good agreement with a three-parameter gamma distribution, especially for the medium to large raindrop size. Using filtered data observed by Parsivel² disdrometer, a new Z–R relationship, Z = 498R^1.3, is derived for convective rain in monsoon season in southern China. These results offer insights of the microphysical nature of precipitation in Zhuhai during monsoon season, and provide essential information that may be useful for precipitation retrievals based on weather radar observations.

Based on the high-resolution data from April to October (the warm season) during the 2010 to 2020 timeframe provided by the FY-2F geostationary meteorological satellite, the classification and application evaluation of the eastward-moving southwest vortex cloud system affecting Zhejiang Province was conducted using cloud classification (CLC) and black body temperature (TBB) products. The results show that: (1) when the intensity of the eastward-moving southwest vortex is strong, the formed precipitation is predominantly regional convective precipitation. The cloud system in the center and southeast quadrant of the southwest vortex is dominated by cumulonimbus and dense cirrus clouds with convective precipitation, while the other quadrants are mainly composed of stratiform clouds, resulting in stable precipitation; (2) The original text is modified as follows: By using the TBB threshold method to identify stratiform and mixed cloud rainfall, we observed a deviation of one order of magnitude. This deviation is advantageous for moderate rain. However, the precipitation results from mixed clouds identified by the TBB threshold method are being overestimated; By means of the application of stratiform and mixed cloud rainfall identified by the TBB threshold method, an order of magnitude deviation was identified (3) The TBB can be consulted to estimate the precipitation, above which there is a large error. Moreover, the dispersion of precipitation produced by deep convective clouds is the largest, while the dispersion of precipitation produced by stratiform clouds is the smallest and has better predictability. Compared to CLC products, cloud type results based on TBB identification are better for convective cloud precipitation application.

In light of the 2020–2021 flood season in Guangdong, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of short-term precipitation forecasts generated by the ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS). Furthermore, we applied four distinct strategies to cluster the ensemble forecast data produced by the model for precipitation, aiming to enhance our understanding of their applicability in short-term precipitation forecasting for Guangdong. Our key findings were as follows.: Precipitation during the 2020–2021 flood season in Guangdong exhibited distinct characteristics. The impacting areas of frontal and subtropical high-edge rainfall were relatively scattered, predominantly occurring in the evening and nighttime. In contrast, monsoon precipitation and return-flow precipitation were concentrated, with their impacts lasting from early morning to evening. Notably, the errors using the ensemble maximum and minimum values were large, while the errors for the ensemble mean values and medians were small. This indicated that the model’s short-term precipitation forecasts possessed a high degree of stability. The vertical shear of different types of precipitation exerted a noticeable influence on the model’s performance. The model consistently displayed a tendency to underestimate short-term precipitation in Guangdong; however, this bias decreased with longer lead times. Simultaneously, the model’s dispersion increased with longer lead times. In terms of mean absolute error (MAE) test results, there was little difference in the performance of ensemble primary forecasts under various strategies, while the “ward” strategy performed well in sub-primary cluster forecasts. This was particularly true for areas and types of precipitation where the model’s performance was poor. While the clustering approach lagged behind ensemble mean forecasts in predicting rainy conditions, it exhibited improvement in forecasting short-term heavy rainfall events. The “complete” and “single” strategies consistently delivered the most accurate forecasts for such events. Our study sheds light on the effectiveness of clustering methods in improving short-term precipitation forecasts for Guangdong, particularly in regions and conditions where the model initially struggled. These findings contribute to our understanding of precipitation forecasting during flood seasons and can inform strategies for enhancing forecast accuracy in similar contexts.

In this study, we investigate the seasonal and diurnal variations in cloud occurrence frequency, as well as cloud vertical structure (CVS) characteristics under different seasons and precipitation intensities over the Guangzhou region in South China, based on the analysis of millimeter-wave cloud radar (MMCR) and ground automatic weather station rainfall observations from May 2019 to August 2021. The results showed that the occurrence frequency of clouds exhibits a bimodal distribution throughout the year, with peaks in March to June and October, reaching its highest occurrence in May at approximately 80% and its lowest from December to February at around 40%. Additionally, there are distinct diurnal variations in occurrence frequency, with the lowest rates occurring around 0005 LST, rapidly increasing after 0006 LST, and peaking during the afternoon to evening hours. Cloud top height (CTH) shows bimodal distributions during the pre-flood and post-flood seasons. The most frequently occurring range of CTH during the pre-flood season is below 3 km, accounting for approximately 43%, while during the post-flood season, it ranges from 11 to 14 km, constituting about 37%. For precipitation clouds, CTH can extend beyond 12 km, with the radar reflectivity decreasing gradually with increasing height. The highest frequencies of radar echoes are observed below 2 km and between 4 and 7 km, exhibiting clear diurnal variations, with echoes mainly below 2 km and between 4 to 6 km during the early morning, intensifying and shifting to higher altitudes during the day and reaching their maximum below 4 km during the afternoon to nighttime hours, while both the frequency and intensity increase in the height range of 4 to 12 km. Vertical profiles of radar reflectivity and cloud ice/liquid water content (IWC/LWC) exhibit similar trends under different precipitation intensities. The main differences are observed below 4 km, where both radar reflectivity and IWC/LWC generally increase with increasing precipitation intensity. These findings contribute to a better understanding of cloud characteristics in the South China region, enhance the accuracy of model simulations, and provide a scientific basis for accurate forecasting and warning of meteorological disasters.