The Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), launched in 2003 and concluded by the PUB Symposium 2012 held in Delft (23–25 October 2012), set out to shift the scientific culture of hydrology towards improved scientific understanding of hydrological processes, as well as associated uncertainties and the development of models with increasing realism and predictive power. This paper reviews the work that has been done under the six science themes of the PUB Decade and outlines the challenges ahead for the hydrological sciences community. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H.H.G., Blöschl, G., McDonnell, J.J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J.W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M.P., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J.E., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H.V., Hughes, D.A., Hut, R.W., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P.A., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H.C., Woods, R.A., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C., 2013. A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1198–1255.

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through on-line media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focussed on process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.

Thirty‐three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up to two winter snow seasons. Modeled estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) or depth were compared to observations at forest and open sites at each location. Precipitation phase and duration of above‐freezing air temperatures are shown to be major influences on divergence and convergence of modeled estimates of the subcanopy snowpack. When models are considered collectively at all locations, comparisons with observations show that it is harder to model SWE at forested sites than open sites. There is no universal “best” model for all sites or locations, but comparison of the consistency of individual model performances relative to one another at different sites shows that there is less consistency at forest sites than open sites, and even less consistency between forest and open sites in the same year. A good performance by a model at a forest site is therefore unlikely to mean a good model performance by the same model at an open site (and vice versa). Calibration of models at forest sites provides lower errors than uncalibrated models at three out of four locations. However, benefits of calibration do not translate to subsequent years, and benefits gained by models calibrated for forest snow processes are not translated to open conditions.

Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncertainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested.

A comprehensive, physically based model of snow accumulation, redistribution, sublimation, and melt for open and forested catchments was assembled, based on algorithms derived from hydrological process research in Russia and Canada. The model was used to evaluate the long-term snow dynamics of a forested and an agricultural catchment in northwestern Russia without calibration from snow observations. The model was run with standard meteorological variables for the two catchments, and its results were tested against regular surface observations of snow accumulation throughout the winter and spring period for 17 seasons. The results showed mean errors in comparison to observations of less than 3% in estimating snow water equivalent during the winter and melt seasons. Snow surface evaporation and blowing snow were found to be small components of the mass balance, but intercepted snow sublimation removed notable amounts of snow over the winter from the forested catchment. Average snow accumulation was... Abstract A comprehensive, physically based model of snow accumulation, redistribution, sublimation, and melt for open and forested catchments was assembled, based on algorithms derived from hydrological process research in Russia and Canada. The model was used to evaluate the long-term snow dynamics of a forested and an agricultural catchment in northwestern Russia without calibration from snow observations. The model was run with standard meteorological variables for the two catchments, and its results were tested against regular surface observations of snow accumulation throughout the winter and spring period for 17 seasons. The results showed mean errors in comparison to observations of less than 3% in estimating snow water equivalent during the winter and melt seasons. Snow surface evaporation and blowing snow were found to be small components of the mass balance, but intercepted snow sublimation removed notable amounts of snow over the winter from the forested catchment. Average snow accumulation was...