Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.
1 September 2017 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Regions of scarce fresh water resources, such as the Middle East and North Africa, are facing great challenges already today, and even more in the future, due to climatic and socioeconomic changes. The Middle Drâa valley in Morocco is one of many semi-arid to arid mountainous areas struggling with increasing water scarcity threatening self-sufficient husbandry. In order to maintain people’s livelihoods water management needs to be adapted. The Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP) software has been widely used to examine complex water systems in the water resource planning sector all around the world and proved to be a helpful asset to show the various interactions of water supply and demand. This paper presents the application of WEAP on the Middle Draâ valley’s water demand and supply, including several socioeconomic and land use scenarios under one basic climate change scenario. The climate scenario shows a significant decrease in available water resources up to 2029 while all socioeconomic scenarios show an increase in water demand. In years of droughts groundwater is used for irrigation, leading to increasingly depleted aquifers. The aquifers are recharged by percolation losses from irrigation and by river bed infiltration the latter of which is stronger in the northern oases than in the southern oases due to water withdrawal rules. A drastic reduction of irrigated agricultural area is the only solution to guarantee sustainable water use.
To explore and address complex water-related issues, true collaborative, interdisciplinary research at the interface of hydrology and social science is necessary. Accordingly, hydrologists are increasingly working with social sciences and becoming involved in fieldwork with participants. With the overarching aim of facilitating collaboration and interdisciplinary water research, here we discuss important considerations and guiding principles for hydrologists, both those new to and those already familiar with interdisciplinary research, who are: (i) involved in fieldwork with participants; and (ii) working more collaboratively with social scientists. Drawing on first-hand experiences, this paper combines theory and experience from hydrologists and social scientists from their various interdisciplinary research projects to better understand key ethical, theoretical and practical considerations when working with participants. Complementary to this, we discuss the barriers and opportunities in collaborative interdisciplinary research. Facilitating these practices and understandings for hydrologists is essential to strengthen collaboration and to develop more holistic, successful research.