Low-carbon road freight transport is pivotal in mitigating global warming. Nonetheless, electrifying heavy-duty vehicles poses a tremendous challenge due to high technical requirements and cost competitiveness. Data on future truck costs are scarce and uncertain, complicating assessments of the future role of zero-emission truck (ZET) technologies. Here we derive most likely cost developments for price setting ZET components by meta forecasting from more than 200 original sources. We find that costs are primed to decline much faster than expected, with significant differences between scientific and near-market estimates. Specifically, battery system costs could drop by 64% to 75% and fall below €150 kWh⁻¹ by no later than 2035, whereas fuel cell system costs may exhibit even higher cost reductions but are unlikely to reach €100 kW⁻¹ before the early 2040s. This fast cost decline supports an optimistic view on the ZET market diffusion and has substantial implications for future energy and transport systems.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector but their limited electric driving range diminishes their utility to users. The effect of the limited driving range can be reduced in multi-car households where users could choose between a BEV and a conventional car for long-distance travel. However, to what extent the driving patterns of different cars in a multi-car household’s suit the characteristics of a BEV needs further analysis. In this paper we analyse the probability of daily driving above a fixed threshold for conventional cars in current Swedish and German car driving data. We find second cars in multi-car households to require less adaptation and to be better suited for BEV adoption compared to first cars in multi-car households as well as to cars in single-car households. Specifically, the share of second cars that could fulfil all their driving is 20 percentage points higher compared to first cars and cars from single-car households. This result is stable against variation of driving range and of the tolerated number of days requiring adaptation. Furthermore, the range needed to cover all driving needs for about 70% of the vehicles is only 220 km for second cars compared to 390 km for the average car. We can further confirm that second cars have higher market viability from a total cost of ownership perspective. Here, the second cars achieve a 10 percentage points higher market share compared to first cars, and to cars in single-car households for Swedish economic conditions, while for Germany the corresponding figure is 2 percentage points. Our results are important for understanding the market viability of current and near-future BEVs