Low-carbon road freight transport is pivotal in mitigating global warming. Nonetheless, electrifying heavy-duty vehicles poses a tremendous challenge due to high technical requirements and cost competitiveness. Data on future truck costs are scarce and uncertain, complicating assessments of the future role of zero-emission truck (ZET) technologies. Here we derive most likely cost developments for price setting ZET components by meta forecasting from more than 200 original sources. We find that costs are primed to decline much faster than expected, with significant differences between scientific and near-market estimates. Specifically, battery system costs could drop by 64% to 75% and fall below €150 kWh⁻¹ by no later than 2035, whereas fuel cell system costs may exhibit even higher cost reductions but are unlikely to reach €100 kW⁻¹ before the early 2040s. This fast cost decline supports an optimistic view on the ZET market diffusion and has substantial implications for future energy and transport systems.

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries have become the preferred power source for electric vehicles (EVs) due to their high energy density, low self-discharge rate, and long cycle life. Over the past decade, technological enhancements accompanied by massive cost reductions have enabled the growing market diffusion of EVs. This diffusion has resulted in customized and cost-effective Li-ion battery cell designs tailored to automotive requirements. This study describes design trends in Li-ion batteries from the pack to the electrode level based on empirical data, including pack energy, cell capacity, outer cell dimensions and formats, energy density, specific energy, and electrode properties, such as active material selection, porosities, and component thicknesses. Market share-weighted findings imply several trends, such as (1) increasing cell dimensions, with the longest cells reaching 500 mm (pouch) and almost 1000 mm (prismatic) in 2021, (2) increasing differentiation between either high-energy or low-cost cathode and anode materials, and (3) increasing cell energy, equivalent to gaining about 100% (energy density) and 70% (specific energy) compared to the 2010 and 2021 averages. Despite these improvements, this study finds that the widespread market diffusion of the latest cell technologies proceeds slower than industry announcements suggest and that several well-known, literature-proofed potentials are not yet fully exploited.

Batteries are critical to mitigate global warming, with battery electric vehicles as the backbone of low-carbon transport and the main driver of advances and demand for battery technology. However, the future demand and production of batteries remain uncertain, while the ambition to strengthen national capabilities and self-sufficiency is gaining momentum. In this study, leveraging probabilistic modelling, we assessed Europe’s capability to meet its future demand for high-energy batteries via domestic cell production. We found that demand in Europe is likely to exceed 1.0 TWh yr⁻¹ by 2030 and thereby outpace domestic production, with production required to grow at highly ambitious growth rates of 31–68% yr⁻¹. European production is very likely to cover at least 50–60% of the domestic demand by 2030, while 90% self-sufficiency seems feasible but far from certain. Thus, domestic production shortfalls are more likely than not. To support Europe’s battery prospects, stakeholders must accelerate the materialization of production capacities and reckon with demand growth post-2030, with reliable industrial policies supporting Europe’s competitiveness.

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions to comply with the Paris Agreement is challenging for road freight. While heavy-duty battery-electric trucks (BET) promise tremendous and immediate reduction potential, literature increasingly confirms technical feasibility in general, and several manufacturers launched BET models. However, their real-world application is still being questioned by fleet owners due to the limited range or payload penalties. Thus, our case study aims to assess the technical feasibility of urban and regional delivery in Germany based on real-world and per-vehicle operational data that feed into an energy simulation with Monte-Carlo modeling. Our results demonstrate the importance of vehicle-specific examination for the right battery capacity that ideally matches the vehicle’s operating profile. We find that full electrification may be most accessible for 18-t and 26-t rigid solo trucks, soon followed by tractor-trailers, while truck-trailers turn out as most challenging. With up to 600 kWh battery capacity available in all truck classes, we find nearly 40% of all transport performance and 60% of all diesel trucks may be replaced with BET—while already 400 kWh is sufficient for half of all trucks. Additional measures such as intermediate charging and adjusted and more flexible truck-tour allocation may significantly accelerate electrification.

This data article introduces a comprehensive dataset of real-world truck parking locations across Europe. The dataset comprises N = 19,713 designated parking sites classified according to public accessibility and suitability for heavy-duty trucks (HDTs). More specifically, core information comprises the truck stop category, latitude and longitude information, area size, and country assignment. Furthermore, additional information such as truck traffic flow volumes, proximity to the highway network, and land use information provide supplemental data on ambient conditions and thus enhance the contextual relevance of those locations. The dataset was systematically generated using OpenStreetMap (OSM) data, focusing on parking areas, rest areas, and fueling stations as predominant public truck parking sites. These locations were evaluated and filtered for truck accessibility and suitability and then complemented and validated using commercial truck routing / geocoding software. Further refinement was achieved by Mean-Shift clustering. The further integration of supplementary datasets increased the information level, and all clustered locations were labeled into four archetypal categories. Finally, filtering retained only confidently classified publicly accessible and truck-certified parking and service facilities. This dataset assists in finding real-world stop options for HDTs during national or international operations and identifying suitable and most attractive sites for deploying alternative charging or refueling infrastructures along the European transport network. Accordingly, it can serve as a valuable resource for research in traffic science, future energy systems, and alternative truck powertrains. Its added value extends to diverse stakeholders like Charge Point Operators (CPOs), truck manufacturers, logistics companies, and public authorities.

Zero-emission trucks will benefit from rapidly falling costs of batteries and fuel cells, which will enable their fast market diffusion. Industry and policy must prepare for battery-electric trucks with respect to their manufacturing and supply, adequate charging infrastructure and electricity grid expansions, as well as regulation.