An understanding of the spatial variation and influence factors of soil nutrients in mining areas can provide a reference for land reclamation and ecological restoration. Daliuta was used as the study area. The spatial variability of soil nutrients was analyzed using traditional statistics and geostatistics. The effects of topography, mining history, and soil erosion were discussed. The results indicate that the soil pH of the Daliuta mining area is slightly acidic to slightly alkaline, and the soil organic matter, available nitrogen, available phosphorus, and available potassium belonged to the five levels (very low), six (extremely low), five (extremely low), and four (moderately low), respectively. The soil water and salt content indicated that the soil environment in the mining area is arid and has normal levels of salinity. The organic matter, available nitrogen, available phosphorus, available potassium, and soil salt varied moderately, and the pH did not change much, while the soil water varied strongly. The organic matter, pH, and soil salinity are moderately spatially autocorrelated, and the available nitrogen, available phosphorus, available potassium, and soil water are weakly spatially autocorrelated. Each nutrient index had a certain spatial trend effect. The slope, aspect, elevation, and topographic wetness index are the primary topographic factors that control the spatial distribution of soil nutrients. The organic matter, pH, and soil salinity are moderately spatially autocorrelated, and the available nitrogen, available phosphorus, available potassium, and soil water are weakly spatially autocorrelated. Each nutrient index had a certain spatial trend effect. The slope, aspect, elevation, and topographic wetness index are the primary topographic factors that control the spatial distribution of soil nutrients. Soil erosion and mining history are also important factors that lead to the spatial variation of soil nutrients.

In recent years, global climate change and human alterations to land use have led to a decrease in ecosystem services, making ecosystems more vulnerable. However, unlike the well-established risk assessment frameworks used in natural disaster research, the concept of ecological risks arising from changes in land use is still in its early stages, with its nuances and assessment methodologies yet to be clearly defined. This study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks resulting from changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin. The framework employs a coupled PLUS and Invest model to evaluate the ecological risks of land use change under three development scenarios projected for the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang by 2035. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the predominant land use types in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang were primarily unused land, followed by grassland and cropland. Conversely, grassland, water, and construction land were relatively less prevalent. During this period, the area of unused land and cultivated land increased, while grassland, forest land, and water exhibited a declining trend. Moving forward, under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2035, land use changes in the study area are characterized by the expansion of cropland and unused land, coupled with a significant decrease in grassland area, while other land categories demonstrate minor fluctuations. (2) From 2020 to 2035, across various scenarios, the total ecosystem service within the study area demonstrates an overall increasing trend in both the northern and southern marginal zones. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the total amount of ecosystem services in the study area decreased by 15.247% compared to 2020. Similarly, under the economic development scenario, this decrease amounted to 13.358% compared to 2020. Conversely, under the ecological protection scenario, the decrease reached 19.852% compared to 2020. (3) The structure of ecological risk levels from 2020 to 2035, across multiple scenarios, demonstrates a consistent pattern, characterized by a predominant proportion of moderate risk. Conversely, other risk levels occupy relatively smaller proportions of the area.