Indonesia has experienced rapid primary forest loss, second only to Brazil in modern history. We examined the fates of Indonesian deforested areas, immediately after clearing and over time, to quantify deforestation drivers in Indonesia. Using time-series satellite data, we tracked degradation and clearing events in intact and degraded natural forests from 1991 to 2020, as well as land use trajectories after forest loss. While an estimated 7.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) of forest cleared during this period had been planted with oil palms by 2020, another 8.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) remained unused. Of the 28.4 Mha (SE = 0.7) deforested, over half were either initially left idle or experienced crop failure before a land use could be detected, and 44% remained unused for 5 y or more. A majority (54%) of these areas were cleared mechanically (not by escaped fires), and in cases where idle lands were eventually converted to productive uses, oil palm plantations were by far the most common outcome. The apparent deliberate creation of idle deforested land in Indonesia and subsequent conversion of idle areas to oil palm plantations indicates that speculation and land banking for palm oil substantially contribute to forest loss, although failed plantations could also contribute to this dynamic. We also found that in Sumatra, few lowland forests remained, suggesting that a lack of remaining forest appropriate for palm oil production, together with an extensive area of banked deforested land, may partially explain slowing forest loss in Indonesia in recent years.

The necessity for precise and current data concerning the dynamics of land cover change in Indonesia is crucial for efforts to reduce natural vegetation cover due to agricultural expansion. The functionality of monitoring systems that incorporate Terra-MODIS is currently compromised by the limited availability of data for the immediate future. This study seeks to assess the potential of VIIRS satellite imagery in developing an early warning system for monitoring vegetation cover change in Indonesia. The normalized differential open-area index (NDOAI) computed from 8-day VIIRS data was employed to detect changes in vegetation cover based on pixel-by-pixel subtraction in the NDOAI data time series. Evaluating the pixel-level accuracy of change detection is complicated due to the fact that we evaluate a change map at a coarser resolution than the Landsat-based reference map. The results revealed that increasing the threshold percentage is associated with improved accuracy. In change detection, there is often a trade-off between accuracy and sensitivity. A threshold that is too low may result in false positives, while a threshold that is too high may lead to missed changes. This study demonstrates that when a threshold value of less than 20% is applied, Landsat can identify vegetation cover changes at an earlier stage. Conversely, when a threshold value greater than 20% is employed, the VIIRS will detect the change 4.5 days earlier than Landsat. Additionally, the VIIRS is capable of detecting changes 25.4 days and 54.8 days faster than Landsat, respectively, when using thresholds of 40% and 70%.

The necessity for precise and current data concerning the dynamics of land cover change in Indonesia is crucial for efforts to reduce natural vegetation cover due to agricultural expansion. The functionality of monitoring systems that incorporate Terra-MODIS is currently compromised by the limited availability of data for the immediate future. This study seeks to assess the potential of VIIRS satellite imagery in developing an early warning system for monitoring vegetation cover change in Indonesia. The Normalized Differential Open Area Index (NDOAI) computed from the 8-day’ VIIRS data was employed to detect changes in vegetation cover based on pixel-by-pixel subtraction in the NDOAI data time series. Evaluating the pixel-level accuracy of change detection is complicated due to the fact that we evaluate a change map at a coarser resolution than the Landsat-based reference map. The results revealed that increasing the threshold percentage is associated with improved accuracy. In change detection, there is often a trade-off between accuracy and sensitivity. A threshold that is too low may result in false positives, while a threshold that is too high may lead to missed changes. This study demonstrates that when a threshold value of less than 20% is applied, Landsat can identify vegetation cover changes at an earlier stage. Conversely, when a threshold value greater than 20% is employed, VIIRS will detect the change 4.5 days earlier than Landsat. Additionally, VIIRS is capable of detecting changes 25.4 days and 54.8 days faster than Landsat, respectively, when using thresholds of 40% and 75%.