The stability of the financial cycle is paramount for the effective formulation and implementation of macroprudential policy in South Africa. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Prudential Authority strive to mitigate excessive fluctuations in the financial cycle, recognising that a stable cycle provides more reliable signals for financial sector activity and anchors macroprudential policy decisions. However, the tightening of macroprudential policy by the SARB and the Prudential Authority during the post-2009 recovery period, despite mild signs of recovery from the global financial crisis, raises concerns about the stability of the South African financial cycle. This study aims to construct a financial cycle volatility index to assess its stability and identify the key macroeconomic drivers of financial instability in South Africa. Employing monthly data from 1970 to 2024, the study utilises a dynamic conditional correlation model and a Markov switching regression model to analyse the relationship between macroeconomic variables and financial stability. The findings reveal heightened financial cycle volatility around crisis periods and demonstrate that macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate fluctuations, price level changes, and implementing monetary and macroprudential policies can significantly increase financial instability. These results suggest a need for proactive and aggressive macroprudential policy measures in the years preceding potential crises. Moreover, the study’s findings emphasise the importance of considering macroeconomic conditions when calibrating financial cycle policies.

This study investigates the short-run and long-run dynamics of the financial cycle in South Africa, focusing on its macroeconomic drivers and their asymmetric effects across different phases. It addresses the persistent challenge in emerging market economies of balancing financial development and stability amidst volatile conditions. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2024, the research employs a quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model to capture the heterogeneity and persistence of macro-financial linkages across the financial cycle’s distribution. The use of the QARDL model in this study allows for capturing asymmetric and quantile-specific relationships that traditional linear models might overlook. Findings reveal that monetary policy, and the housing sector are key drivers of long-term financial development in South Africa, showing positive effects. Conversely, exchange rate movements, inflation, money supply, and macroprudential policy dampen financial development. Short-term financial booms are associated with GDP growth, credit, share, and housing prices. Money supply and inflation are more closely linked to burst phases. These results underscore the importance of policy coordination, particularly between monetary and macroprudential authorities, to balance promoting financial development and ensuring stability in emerging markets. This study contributes to the empirical literature and offers practical insights for policymakers.

This study investigated the causal interactions between macroprudential policy, measured by the Macroprudential Policy Index (MPI), and financial cycles represented by the Aggregate Financial Cycle (AFC) and the Credit and Asset Prices Financial Cycle (CAFC) in South Africa from 1970q1 to 2023q2. Additionally, the study explored the effects of macroprudential policy during different phases of financial cycles. Using the time-varying Granger-causality model, the study found that the MPI Granger-caused financial cycles during the 2003/07 credit boom in South Africa, while the AFC and CAFC Granger-caused macroprudential policy during the Covid-19-induced collapse of financial markets. The results suggest that macroprudential policy is employed more proactively during financial booms and more reactively during financial busts in South Africa. The Markov switching dynamic regression model used to assess the MPI's effects revealed that macroprudential policy's effectiveness is stronger during financial busts and weaker during financial booms in South Africa. This is because financial institutions in South Africa tend to resist stricter regulations during boom phases due to heightened optimism about future prospects. Conversely, they are more receptive to stimulatory interventions during bust phases. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the South African Reserve Bank and the Prudential Authority use macroprudential policy more assertively during financial booms to enhance its effectiveness. This could involve setting more stringent parameters upon activating macroprudential policy tools or complementing macroprudential policy with monetary policy during financial booms.

Interactions between monetary and macroprudential policy are crucial in safeguarding price and financial stability. This study investigates the macroeconomic and financial impacts of monetary and macroprudential policy interactions in South Africa, a leading African economy in developing macroprudential frameworks. The existing literature largely focuses on the effectiveness of these policies independently, leaving a gap in understanding how their interaction affects their overall efficacy. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and utilizing data from 1980 to 2023, this study uniquely incorporates the financial cycle to represent financial developments. The results reveal significant effects of both policies on key variables such as output, the financial cycle, and the price level. Specifically, policy contractions reduce output and the financial cycle but increase the price level, illustrating the ‘price puzzle’. This study further identifies an endogenous response between the two policies: monetary policy reacts by rising to reduce price levels following a macroprudential shock, while macroprudential policy rises to stimulate financial activity after a monetary shock. These findings underscore the importance of using both policies in conjunction but in opposite directions to balance their effects and achieve price and financial stability. This study suggests that an optimal combination of monetary and macroprudential policies is critical for maintaining macroeconomic equilibrium.