Accurate estimation of surface evapotranspiration (ET) in the Heihe River Basin using remote sensing data is crucial for understanding water dynamics in arid regions. In this paper, by coupling physical constraints and machine learning for hybrid modeling, we develop a hybrid model based on surface conductance optimization. A hybrid modeling algorithm, two physical process-based ET algorithms (Penman–Monteith-based and Priestley–Taylor-based ET algorithms), and three pure machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and K Nearest Neighbors) are comparatively analyzed for estimating the ET. The results showed that, in general, the machine learning model optimized by parameters was able to better predict the surface conductance of the hybrid model. Driver analyses showed that radiation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and air temperature had high correlations with ET. The hybrid model had a better prediction performance for ET than the other five models, and it improved the R₂ of the two physical process-based algorithms to 0.9, reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) to 0.5 mm/day, reduced the BIAS to 0.2 mm/day, and improved the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) to 0.9. The hybrid model outperformed the others across different time scales, displaying lower BIAS, RMSE, and higher KGE. Spatially, its ET patterns aligned with regional vegetation changes, with superior accuracy in annual ET estimation compared to the other models. Comparison with other ET products shows that the estimation results based on the hybrid model have better performance. This approach not only improves the accuracy of ET estimation but also improves the understanding of the physical mechanism of ET estimation by pure machine learning models. This study can provide important support for understanding ET and hydrological processes under different climatic and biotic vegetation in other arid and semi-arid regions.

The validation of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) products is important for the development of ET estimation models and the accuracy of the scientific application of the products. In this study, different ET products such as HiTLL, MOD16A2, ETMonitor, and SoGAE were compared using multi-source remote sensing data and ground-based data to evaluate their applicability in the Heihe River Basin (HRB) during 2010–2019. The results of the comparison with the site observations show that ETMonitor provides a more stable and reliable estimation of ET than the other three products. The ET exhibited significant variations over the decade, characterized by a general increase in rates across the HRB. These changes were markedly influenced by variations in land use and topographical features. Specifically, the analysis showed that farmland and forested areas had higher ET rates due to greater vegetation cover and moisture availability, while grasslands and water bodies demonstrated lower ET rates, reflecting their respective land cover characteristics. This study further explored the influence of various factors on ET, including land use changes, NDVI, temperature, and precipitation. It was found that changes in land use, such as increases in agricultural areas or reforestation efforts, directly influenced ET rates. Moreover, meteorological conditions such as temperature and precipitation patterns also played crucial roles, with warmer temperatures and higher precipitation correlating with increased ET. This study highlights the significant impact of land use and climatic factors on spatiotemporal variations in ET within the HRB, underscoring its importance for optimizing water resource management and land use planning in arid regions.