Ecosystem Services (ES) are an established conceptual framework for attributing value to the benefits that nature provides to humans. As the promise of robust ES-driven management is put to the test, shortcomings in our ability to accurately measure, map, and value ES have surfaced. On the research side, mainstream methods for ES assessment still fall short of addressing the complex, multi-scale biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics inherent in ES provision, flow, and use. On the practitioner side, application of methods remains onerous due to data and model parameterization requirements. Further, it is increasingly clear that the dominant “one model fits all” paradigm is often ill-suited to address the diversity of real-world management situations that exist across the broad spectrum of coupled human-natural systems. This article introduces an integrated ES modeling methodology, named ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services), which aims to introduce improvements on these fronts. To improve conceptual detail and representation of ES dynamics, it adopts a uniform conceptualization of ES that gives equal emphasis to their production, flow and use by society, while keeping model complexity low enough to enable rapid and inexpensive assessment in many contexts and for multiple services. To improve fit to diverse application contexts, the methodology is assisted by model integration technologies that allow assembly of customized models from a growing model base. By using computer learning and reasoning, model structure may be specialized for each application context without requiring costly expertise. In this article we discuss the founding principles of ARIES - both its innovative aspects for ES science and as an example of a new strategy to support more accurate decision making in diverse application contexts.

Bagstad, K. J., F. Villa, D. Batker, J. Harrison-Cox, B. Voigt, and G. W. Johnson. 2014. From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: mapping beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments. Ecology and Society 19(2): 64.http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06523-190264

In this study, we develop a vegetation monitoring framework which is applicable at a planetary scale, and is based on the BACI (Before-After, Control-Impact) design. This approach utilizes Google Earth Engine, a state-of-the-art cloud computing platform. A web-based application for users named EcoDash was developed. EcoDash maps vegetation using Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products (the MOD13A1 and MYD13A1 collections) from both Terra and Aqua sensors from the years 2000 and 2002, respectively. to detect change in vegetation, we define an EVI baseline period, and then draw results at a planetary scale using the web-based application by measuring improvement or degradation in vegetation based on the user-defined baseline periods. We also used EcoDash to measure the impact of deforestation and mitigation efforts by the Vietnam Forests and Deltas (VFD) program for the Nghe An and Thanh Hoa provinces in Vietnam. Using the period before 2012 as a baseline, we found that as of March 2017, 86% of the geographical area within the VFD program shows improvement, compared to only a 24% improvement in forest cover for all of Vietnam. Overall, we show how using satellite imagery for monitoring vegetation in a cloud-computing environment could be a cost-effective and useful tool for land managers and other practitioners

Ecosystem services are the effects on human well-being of the flow of benefits from ecosystems to people over given extents of space and time. The Service Path Attribution Network (SPAN) model provides a spatial framework for determining the topology and strength of these flows and identifies the human and ecological features which give rise to them. As an aid to decision-making, this approach discovers dependencies between provision and usage endpoints, spatial competition among users for scarce resources, and areas of highest likely impact on ecosystem service flows. Particularly novel is the model’s ability to quantify services provided by the absence of a flow. SPAN models have been developed for a number of services (scenic views, proximity to open space, carbon sequestration, flood mitigation, nutrient cycling, and avoided sedimentation/deposition), which vary in scale of effect, mechanism of provision and use, and type of flow. Results using real world data are shown for the US Puget Sound region.

The methodology used by the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to compute estimates of the 30-year, climate-adjusted aggregate wildfire hazard for the contiguous United States at 30 m horizontal resolution is presented. The FSF-WFM integrates several existing methods from the wildfire science community and implements computationally efficient and scalable modeling techniques to allow for new high-resolution, CONUS-wide hazard generation. Burn probability, flame length, and ember spread for the years 2022 and 2052 are computed from two ten-year representative Monte Carlo simulations of wildfire behavior, utilizing augmented LANDFIRE fuel estimates updated with all the available disturbance information. FSF-WFM utilizes ELMFIRE, an open-source, Rothermel-based wildfire behavior model, and multiple US Federal Government open data sources to drive the simulations. LANDFIRE non-burnable fuel classes within the wildland–urban interface (WUI) are replaced with fuel estimates from machine-learning models, trained on data from historical fires, to allow the propagation of wildfire through the WUI in the model. Historical wildfire ignition locations and NOAA’s hourly time series of surface weather at 2.5 km resolution are used to drive ELMFIRE to produce wildfire hazards representative of the 2022 and 2052 conditions at 30 m resolution, with the future weather conditions scaled to the IPCC CMIP5 RCP4.5 model ensemble predictions. Winds and vegetation were held constant between the 2022 and 2052 simulations, and climate change’s impacts on the future fuel conditions are the main contributors to the changes observed in the 2052 results. Non-zero wildfire exposure is estimated for 71.8 million out of 140 million properties across CONUS. Climate change impacts add another 11% properties to this non-zero exposure class over the next 30 years, with much of this change observed in the forested areas east of the Mississippi River. “Major” aggregate wildfire exposure of greater than 6% over the 30-year analysis period from 2022 to 2052 is estimated for 10.2 million properties. The FSF-WFM represents a notable contribution to the ability to produce property-specific, climate-adjusted wildfire risk assessments in the US.