Climate change severely affects mountain forests and their ecosystem services, e.g., by altering disturbance regimes. Increasing timber harvest (INC) via a close-to-nature forestry may offer a mitigation strategy to reduce disturbance predisposition. However, little is known about the efficiency of this strategy at the scale of forest enterprises and potential trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). We applied a decision support system which accounts for disturbance predisposition and BES indicators to evaluate the effect of different harvest intensities and climate change scenarios on windthrow and bark beetle predisposition in a mountain forest enterprise in Switzerland. Simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2100 under historic climate and climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In terms of BES, biodiversity (structural and tree species diversity, deadwood amount) as well as timber production, recreation (visual attractiveness), carbon sequestration, and protection against gravitational hazards (rockfall, avalanche and landslides) were assessed. The INC strategy reduced disturbance predisposition to windthrow and bark beetles. However, the mitigation potential for bark beetle disturbance was relatively small (− 2.4%) compared to the opposite effect of climate change (+ 14% for RCP8.5). Besides, the INC strategy increased the share of broadleaved species and resulted in a synergy with recreation and timber production, and a trade-off with carbon sequestration and protection function. Our approach emphasized the disproportionally higher disturbance predisposition under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, which may threaten currently unaffected mountain forests. Decision support systems accounting for climate change, disturbance predisposition, and BES can help coping with such complex planning situations.

Climate-adaptive forest management aims to sustain the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB). However, it remains largely unknown how changes in adaptive silvicultural interventions affect trade-offs and synergies among ESB in the long term. We used a simulation-based sensitivity analysis to evaluate popular adaptive forest management interventions in representative Swiss low- to mid-elevation beech- and spruce-dominated forest stands. We predicted stand development across the twenty-first century using a novel empirical and temperature-sensitive single-tree forest stand simulator in a fully crossed experimental design to analyse the effects of (1) planting mixtures of Douglas-fir, oak and silver fir, (2) thinning intensity, and (3) harvesting intensity on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity under three climate scenarios. Simulation results were evaluated in terms of multiple ESB provision, trade-offs and synergies, and individual effects of the adaptive interventions. Timber production increased on average by 45% in scenarios that included tree planting. Tree planting led to pronounced synergies among all ESBs towards the end of the twenty-first century. Increasing the thinning and harvesting intensity affected ESB provision negatively. Our simulations indicated a temperature-driven increase in growth in beech- (+ 12.5%) and spruce-dominated stands (+ 3.7%), but could not account for drought effects on forest dynamics. Our study demonstrates the advantages of multi-scenario sensitivity analysis that enables quantifying effect sizes and directions of management impacts. We showed that admixing new tree species is promising to enhance future ESB provision and synergies among them. These results support strategic decision making in forestry.

Forest management is becoming increasingly complex due to increasing demands in ecosystem service provisioning and future climate change impacts. For a sustainable forest management, scientifically well-founded decision support is therefore urgently required. Within the project SessFor, a decision support system for strategic planning at the forest enterprise level is being developed, based on the climate sensitive forest model SwissStandSim and initialized from forest inventory data. The system is currently applied to the forest enterprise Wagenrain (440 ha), located in the Swiss Plateau region. Indicators for biodiversity and ecosystem service provisioning (timber production, recreation value and carbon sequestration) are calculated for different management strategies and evaluated using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Preliminary results demonstrate the suitability of the system to evaluate ecosystem service provisioning under different management strategies and to identify the best management strategy, based on criteria defined by the forest manager. Furthermore, results show how the system can be used to assess developments for time-scales of 50–100 years under different climate change scenarios. In the ongoing project, the system will be applied to other case study regions, including mountain forests, which are of key importance in Switzerland and other alpine areas.

With this study, our aim was to estimate the nutrient fluxes relevant for assessing nutrient sustainability as accurately as possible and to calculate nutrient balances for alternative forest management scenarios. Furthermore, we tested whether mapping units from existing geologic maps can serve as a basis for forest practitioners to estimate nutrient sustainability or whether more detailed data are needed. Positive fluxes include deposition and weathering, while negative fluxes include losses due to leaching and nutrient removal through timber harvesting in the balance. Weathering and leachate losses were modeled with a geochemical model. The SwissStandSim model was used to simulate the biomass growth under different harvesting and silvicultural strategies, allowing for sustainability to be assessed for each nutrient at a given intensity of use. This assessment was made per rotation period based on two criteria: (i) nutrient supply and (ii) total stocking volume. As a result, it can be noted that the accurate estimation of individual fluxes is essential for assessing the sustainability of forestry practices and that it needs detailed site-specific data. Various influencing factors turned out to be important, particularly the assumed depth of the root zone.