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Long-term perspectives on climate- and human-induced shifts in plant communities and tree line in mountains are often inferred from fossil pollen records. However, various factors, such as complex patterns of orographic wind fields and abundant insect-pollinated plants in higher altitudes, make pollen-based reconstruction in mountain regions difficult. Over the last decade the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) - a model-based approach in reconstruction of vegetation – has been successfully applied in various parts of the globe. However, evaluation of its effectiveness in mountain ranges is still limited. The present study assesses the extent to which the LRA approach helps quantify the local changes in vegetation cover at Vicdessos valley in northern French Pyrenees as a case study. In the study area well-dated sediment cores are available from eight bogs and ponds, 6–113 m in radius, located above the current tree line. We first use a simple simulation experiment to evaluate the way how pollen records from “landscape islands” (mountain tops and plateaus) would represent local vegetation and to clarify important factors affecting the LRA-based reconstruction in a mountainous region. This study then uses pollen records from these sites and vegetation and land-cover data both within a 50-km radius around the Vicdessos valley and within a 2-km radius from each site for evaluation of the REVEALS- and LOVE-based reconstruction of the regional and local plant cover, respectively, in the LRA approach. The land-cover data are complied for coniferous trees, broadleaved trees and non-forested areas from the CORINE and historical maps in three time windows: 1960–1970, 1990–2000 and 2000–2013. Major findings are as follows. (1) Accuracy of the regional vegetation estimates affects the reliability of the LRA-based reconstruction of vegetation within a 2-km radius; use of the CORINE data as input to the LOVE model improves reliability of the results over the use of the REVEALS-based estimates of regional vegetation. This implies that a systematic selection of pollen data only from sites above the tree line is problematic for estimating regional vegetation, and thus the entire LRA process. (2) Selection of the dispersal models for pollen transport (i.e. the Langrangian Stochastic Model vs. Gaussian Plume Model) does not affect significantly the LRA-based estimates at both the regional and local scales in the study area. (3) The LRA approach improves the pollen-based reconstruction of local vegetation compared to pollen percentage alone in northern Pyrenees. Although further empirical and simulation studies are necessary, our results emphasize the importance of site selection for the LRA-based reconstruction of vegetation in mountain regions.
Laurent Marquer; Florence Mazier; Shinya Sugita; Didier Galop; Thomas Houet; Elodie Faure; Marie-José Gaillard; Sébastien Haunold; Nicolas de Munnik; Anaëlle Simonneau; François De Vleeschouwer; Gaël Le Roux. Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land-cover in mountain regions: Evaluation of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm in the Vicdessos valley, northern Pyrenees, France. Quaternary Science Reviews 2019, 228, 106049 .
AMA StyleLaurent Marquer, Florence Mazier, Shinya Sugita, Didier Galop, Thomas Houet, Elodie Faure, Marie-José Gaillard, Sébastien Haunold, Nicolas de Munnik, Anaëlle Simonneau, François De Vleeschouwer, Gaël Le Roux. Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land-cover in mountain regions: Evaluation of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm in the Vicdessos valley, northern Pyrenees, France. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2019; 228 ():106049.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLaurent Marquer; Florence Mazier; Shinya Sugita; Didier Galop; Thomas Houet; Elodie Faure; Marie-José Gaillard; Sébastien Haunold; Nicolas de Munnik; Anaëlle Simonneau; François De Vleeschouwer; Gaël Le Roux. 2019. "Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land-cover in mountain regions: Evaluation of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm in the Vicdessos valley, northern Pyrenees, France." Quaternary Science Reviews 228, no. : 106049.
Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1) in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS). Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.
Jed O. Kaplan; Kristen M. Krumhardt; Marie-José Gaillard; Shinya Sugita; Anna-Kari Trondman; Ralph Fyfe; Laurent Marquer; Florence Mazier; Anne Birgitte Nielsen. Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions. Land 2017, 6, 91 .
AMA StyleJed O. Kaplan, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Marie-José Gaillard, Shinya Sugita, Anna-Kari Trondman, Ralph Fyfe, Laurent Marquer, Florence Mazier, Anne Birgitte Nielsen. Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions. Land. 2017; 6 (4):91.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJed O. Kaplan; Kristen M. Krumhardt; Marie-José Gaillard; Shinya Sugita; Anna-Kari Trondman; Ralph Fyfe; Laurent Marquer; Florence Mazier; Anne Birgitte Nielsen. 2017. "Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions." Land 6, no. 4: 91.
Shinya Sugita. Spatial scale of vegetation reconstruction using fossil pollen: a view from the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm. Quaternary International 2012, 279-280, 476 -477.
AMA StyleShinya Sugita. Spatial scale of vegetation reconstruction using fossil pollen: a view from the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm. Quaternary International. 2012; 279-280 ():476-477.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinya Sugita. 2012. "Spatial scale of vegetation reconstruction using fossil pollen: a view from the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm." Quaternary International 279-280, no. : 476-477.
The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) overcomes some of the fundamental problems in pollen analysis for quantitative reconstruction of vegetation. LRA first uses the REVEALS model to estimate regional vegetation using pollen data from large sites and then the LOVE model to estimate vegetation composition within the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) at small sites by subtracting the background pollen estimated from the regional vegetation composition. This study tests LRA using training data from forest hollows in northern Michigan (35 sites) and northwestern Wisconsin (43 sites). In northern Michigan, surface pollen from 152-ha and 332-ha lakes is used for REVEALS. Because of the lack of pollen data from large lakes in northwestern Wisconsin, we use pollen from 21 hollows randomly selected from the 43 sites for REVEALS. RSAP indirectly estimated by LRA is comparable to the expected value in each region. A regression analysis and permutation test validate that the LRA-based vegetation reconstruction is significantly more accurate than pollen percentages alone in both regions. Even though the site selection in northwestern Wisconsin is not ideal, the results are robust. The LRA is a significant step forward in quantitative reconstruction of vegetation.
Shinya Sugita; Tim Parshall; Randy Calcote; Karen Walker. Testing the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm for spatially explicit reconstruction of vegetation in northern Michigan and Wisconsin. Quaternary Research 2010, 74, 289 -300.
AMA StyleShinya Sugita, Tim Parshall, Randy Calcote, Karen Walker. Testing the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm for spatially explicit reconstruction of vegetation in northern Michigan and Wisconsin. Quaternary Research. 2010; 74 (2):289-300.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinya Sugita; Tim Parshall; Randy Calcote; Karen Walker. 2010. "Testing the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm for spatially explicit reconstruction of vegetation in northern Michigan and Wisconsin." Quaternary Research 74, no. 2: 289-300.
To understand how temperate forests might respond to future episodes of global warming, it is important to study the effects of large-scale climate change brought about by rapid postglacial warming. Compilations of fossil evidence have provided the best evidence of past plant range shifts, especially in eastern North America and Europe, and provide a context for interpreting new molecular datasets from modern forests. In western North America, however, such reviews have lagged even for common, widespread taxa. Here, we synthesize fossil evidence for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) from nearly 550 fossil pollen, sedimentary macrofossil, and packrat midden macrofossil sites to develop hypotheses about the species’ late Quaternary history that can be tested with molecular phylogeographic studies. For both the coastal and interior varieties, we identified alternative hypotheses on the number of glacial populations and postglacial migration patterns that can be characterized as single-population versus multiple-population hypotheses. Coastal Douglas-fir may have been subdivided into two populations at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and colonized British Columbia from populations in Washington and Oregon. Interior Douglas-fir could have been subdivided along major topographic barriers into at least three LGM populations and colonized British Columbia and Alberta from populations in northwest Wyoming and/or northeast Utah. For both varieties, we calculated migration rates lower than previous studies, which could have been as high as 100–220 m/yr if Douglas-fir reached its modern distribution 9000 cal yr BP, or as low as 50 m/yr if it reached its modern range at present. The elevational range of populations in California and the southern Rockies shifted upslope by 700–1000 m. If there were multiple LGM populations, these elevational shifts suggest that those populations did not contribute to the colonization of Canada. Our findings emphasize the possibility of low-density northern LGM populations and that populations within species react individualistically in response to large-scale climate change.
Paul F. Gugger; Shinya Sugita. Glacial populations and postglacial migration of Douglas-fir based on fossil pollen and macrofossil evidence. Quaternary Science Reviews 2010, 29, 2052 -2070.
AMA StylePaul F. Gugger, Shinya Sugita. Glacial populations and postglacial migration of Douglas-fir based on fossil pollen and macrofossil evidence. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2010; 29 (17-18):2052-2070.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul F. Gugger; Shinya Sugita. 2010. "Glacial populations and postglacial migration of Douglas-fir based on fossil pollen and macrofossil evidence." Quaternary Science Reviews 29, no. 17-18: 2052-2070.
Shinya Sugita; Sheila Hicks; Henna Sormunen. Absolute pollen productivity and pollen–vegetation relationships in northern Finland. Journal of Quaternary Science 2009, 25, 724 -736.
AMA StyleShinya Sugita, Sheila Hicks, Henna Sormunen. Absolute pollen productivity and pollen–vegetation relationships in northern Finland. Journal of Quaternary Science. 2009; 25 (5):724-736.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinya Sugita; Sheila Hicks; Henna Sormunen. 2009. "Absolute pollen productivity and pollen–vegetation relationships in northern Finland." Journal of Quaternary Science 25, no. 5: 724-736.
Models based on generalized plant physiological theory represent a promising approach for describing vegetation responses to environmental drivers on large scales but must be tested for their ability to reproduce features of real vegetation. We tested the capability of a generalized vegetation model (LPJ‐GUESS) to simulate vegetation structural and compositional dynamics under various disturbance regimes at the transition between prairie, northern hardwoods, and boreal forest in the Great Lakes region of the United States. LPJ‐GUESS combines detailed representations of population dynamics as commonly used in forest gap models with the same mechanistic representations of plant physiological processes as adopted by a dynamic global vegetation model (the Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena [LPJ] model), which has been validated from the stand to the global scale. The model does not require site‐specific calibration. The required input data are information on climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and soil texture class, as well as information on generally recognized species traits (broad‐leaved vs. needle‐leaved, general climatic range, two fire‐resistance classes, shade‐tolerance class, and maximum longevity). Model predictions correspond closely to observed patterns of vegetation dynamics and standing biomass at an old‐growth eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis)/hardwood forest (Sylvania Wilderness, Michigan), an old‐growth forest remnant from the “Great Lakes Pines Forest” (Itasca State Park, Minnesota), and a presettlement savanna (Cedar Creek Natural History Area, Minnesota). At all three sites, disturbance (wind or fire) strongly controls species composition and stand biomass. The model could be used to simulate vegetation dynamics on a regional basis or under past or future climates and atmospheric CO2 levels, without a need for reparameterization.
Thomas Hickler; Benjamin Smith; Martin T. Sykes; Margaret B. Davis; Shinya Sugita; Karen Walker. USING A GENERALIZED VEGETATION MODEL TO SIMULATE VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN NORTHEASTERN USA. Ecology 2004, 85, 519 -530.
AMA StyleThomas Hickler, Benjamin Smith, Martin T. Sykes, Margaret B. Davis, Shinya Sugita, Karen Walker. USING A GENERALIZED VEGETATION MODEL TO SIMULATE VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN NORTHEASTERN USA. Ecology. 2004; 85 (2):519-530.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThomas Hickler; Benjamin Smith; Martin T. Sykes; Margaret B. Davis; Shinya Sugita; Karen Walker. 2004. "USING A GENERALIZED VEGETATION MODEL TO SIMULATE VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN NORTHEASTERN USA." Ecology 85, no. 2: 519-530.
Fossil pollen assemblages provide a record of past vegetation composition, both natural (climate-induced) and anthropogenic (human-induced). Pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of plant abundance (in percentage cover) requires that biases due to differences between plants in pollen productivity and dispersal characteristics are corrected. Such correction is achieved by the “Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites”(REVEALS( model given that estimates of pollen productivity (PPEs) and fall speed of pollen (FSP) are available for the major plants building the plant cover. For details about the REVEALS model, see Sugita (2007).REVEALS estimates of 31 taxa, 11 plant functional types (PFTs), 3 land-cover types (LCTs) for Europe, were produced in October 2020 as part of the results from the Swedish project LandClimII. The pollen-based REVEALS estimates of land cover for 25 time windows of the Holocene will be used to: quantify the effects of the bio geophysical forcing induced by human-induced deforestation on the regional climate of Europe at 2500 and 1000 calendar years before present, quantify the contributions of European deforestation to (global) biogeochemical forcing and evaluate the new scenarios of anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) KK and HYDE.The LandClimII pollen-based REVEALS reconstructions cover Europe (30°-75°N, 25°W-50°E) and were performed at a spatial scale of 1° × 1° (ca. 100 km × 100 km), which is the estimated spatial scale of REVEALS plant-cover estimates using all available pollen records (1128) within a grid cell and all pollen counts within each time window to ensure reliable estimates of plant cover and minimize their error estimates. The REVEALS estimates and standard errors were reconstructed for 25 time windows covering the Holocene i.e. X to 100 BP, 100 – 350 BP, 350 – 700, 700 – 1200, 1200 -1700 BP and in 500 consecutive time windows from here to 11,700 BP (BP – before present (1950)). All REVEALS estimates and their SEs are given in proportions of the grid cell (the total of all REVEALS estimates sum up to 1). There are 25 files labelled TW.(number of time window).RVestimates.csv and 25 files labelled TW.(number of time window).standarderrors.csv. The RVestimates.csv files contain the REVEALS estimates for each land-cover type (LCT), plant function type (PFT) and taxa which has a unique grid ID and corresponding longitude and latitude. The standard error csv files contain the standard errors for each land-cover type (LCT), plant function type (PFT) and taxa.
Esther Githumbi; Ralph M Fyfe; Anna-Kari Trondmann; Florence Mazier; Anne Birgitte Nielsen; Anneli Poska; Shinya Sugita; Jessie Woodbridge; Marie-José Gaillard. A full Holocene record of transient gridded vegetation cover in Europe. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleEsther Githumbi, Ralph M Fyfe, Anna-Kari Trondmann, Florence Mazier, Anne Birgitte Nielsen, Anneli Poska, Shinya Sugita, Jessie Woodbridge, Marie-José Gaillard. A full Holocene record of transient gridded vegetation cover in Europe. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEsther Githumbi; Ralph M Fyfe; Anna-Kari Trondmann; Florence Mazier; Anne Birgitte Nielsen; Anneli Poska; Shinya Sugita; Jessie Woodbridge; Marie-José Gaillard. 2021. "A full Holocene record of transient gridded vegetation cover in Europe." , no. : 1.