The article is devoted to the development of a mathematical model for preventing a breakthrough of a dam and predict its possible consequences. In this work, the task of developing a single integrated approach to ensuring the safe operation of hydraulic structures, based on the notification of interested bodies in real time, was solved. A mathematical model of the state of the reservoir is developed, on the basis of which a hardware-software complex for operational notification of interested organizations (akimats) and local emergency departments is implemented. A mathematical model of predicting the consequences of a dam break is proposed. An algorithm for calculating the maximum level of the breakout wave has been formulated, taking into account many parameters of the hydraulic structures. The convergence of the developed algorithm in the form of a theorem has been proved. This method has a large practical focus, compared with existing formulas. The Java language implements a hardware-software complex (PAC) for predicting the effects of a dam break, consisting of the following modules: 1) a module for receiving and transmitting current information about the water level, humidity and temperature on the crest of the dam; 2) a module for processing constant and operational information about the threat of dam breakthrough (server); 3) a module for predicting the effects of a dam break. Based on the solution of the model problem, the effectiveness of the developed hardware-software complex is shown. The practical basis for the model task was the events that took place in Kyzylagash village of Almaty region of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The article is devoted to the development of a river flow modeling technique. The paper considers possible approaches to modeling the flow of fluids, as well as an analysis of existing solution methods and the formulation of research problems. The task is analyzed and the main problems that may arise in the course of its solution are identified. A general description of the problem and the formulation of research objectives are given. The advantages and disadvantages of the described methods are highlighted. A comparative analysis of known methods for complex analysis, forecasting the consequences of natural and man-made emergencies using modern technologies of mathematical modeling and a computational experiment with displaying the results in a geographic information system and a study of a mathematical model of a dam breakthrough was carried out. A description of the flood and flood monitoring technology developed in Kazakhstan is given, the results of its practical use in certain regions are discussed, and directions for further development are outlined. Thus, based on the analysis of various existing methods, the goal and main objectives of research aimed at developing a methodology for predicting a hydrodynamic accident as an emergency were formulated. The continuous wave method or ultrasonic pulse echo method is used. Based on microprocessor technology and sensors, an autonomous microcomputer system for transmitting climate data has been developed. A program for monitoring the factors of breakthrough waves in real time has been developed. An autonomous microcomputer system for transmitting climate data has been developed. The autonomous power supply subsystem for satellite data transmission systems includes a set of equipment, the functions of which are to generate and store energy for its subsequent use in order to provide power supply to the equipment. Water level measurement equipment can be different. To ensure the functioning of the system, the measuring equipment will be interfaced with the data transmission subsystem and the power supply subsystem. The pairing of these systems will make it possible to monitor the water level in moraine lakes, the location of which is extremely inaccessible. Technical means measuring the water level must be able to receive data from sensors with different periodicity. The accumulated data is used to predict possible floods and floods, calculate water consumption, and for other purposes. The characteristics of dams and the capabilities of modern control systems based on the use of microprocessor technology are analyzed.

Целью данной работы является разработка гибридной модели прогнозирования последствий селевого прорыва гидротехнических сооружений, таких как дамбы и плотины. Представленная работа посвящена автоматизации процессов моделирования и анализа разрушения гидротехнических сооружений, основываясь на современных методах гидродинамики и теплофизики. Актуальность данной работы обусловлена увеличением частоты и масштаба катастрофических наводнений, вызванных разрушением гидротехнических сооружений, что требует эффективных методов прогнозирования и предотвращения подобных событий. Предложенные в работе методы и модели имеют значительное практическое значение для оценки рисков, планирования эвакуационных мероприятий и минимизации ущерба от чрезвычайных ситуаций, связанных с прорывами плотин и дамб.

Целью данной работы является определение параметров математической модели, описывающей прорывы селевых потоков через гидротехнические объекты, такие как дамбы и плотины. Достижение этой цели позволит соотнести разработанную модель с реальными наблюдениями и данными. Важность исследования обусловлена увеличением частоты и интенсивности катастрофических наводнений, вызванных разрушением таких сооружений, что подчеркивает необходимость разработки эффективных методов для прогнозирования и предотвращения подобных инцидентов. Методы и подходы, предложенные в данной работе, обладают высоким практическим значением для оценки вероятных рисков, организации эвакуационных мероприятий и снижения ущерба от аварий, связанных с разрушением дамб и плотин.