Species distribution models (SDMs) help identify areas for the development of populations or communities to prevent extinctions, especially in the face of the global environmental change. This study modeled the potential distribution of the tree Picea chihuahuana Martínez, a species in danger of extinction, using the maximum entropy modeling method (MaxEnt) at three scales: local, state and national. We used a total of 38 presence data from the Sierra Madre Occidental. At the local scale, we compared MaxEnt with the reclassification and overlay method integrated in a geographic information system. MaxEnt generated maps with a high predictive capability (AUC > 0.97). The distribution of P. chihuahuana is defined by vegetation type and minimum temperature at national and state scales. At the local scale, both models calculated similar areas for the potential distribution of the species; the variables that better defined the species distribution were vegetation type, aspect and distance to water flows. Populations of P. chihuahuana have always been small, but our results show potential habitat greater than the area of the actual distribution. These results provide an insight into the availability of areas suitable for the species’ regeneration, possibly through assisted colonization.

The performance of many desert plant species in North America may decline with the warmer and drier conditions predicted by climate change models, thereby accelerating land degradation and reducing ecosystem productivity. We paired repeat measurements of plant canopy cover with climate at multiple sites across the Chihuahuan Desert over the last century to determine which plant species and functional types may be the most sensitive to climate change. We found that the dominant perennial grass, Bouteloua eriopoda, and species richness had nonlinear responses to summer precipitation, decreasing more in dry summers than increasing with wet summers. Dominant shrub species responded differently to the seasonality of precipitation and drought, but winter precipitation best explained changes in the cover of woody vegetation in upland grasslands and may contribute to woody‐plant encroachment that is widespread throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Temperature explained additional variability of changes in cover of dominant and subdominant plant species. Using a novel empirically based approach we identified “climate pivot points” that were indicative of shifts from increasing to decreasing plant cover over a range of climatic conditions. Reductions in cover of annual and several perennial plant species, in addition to declines in species richness below the long‐term summer precipitation mean across plant communities, indicate a decrease in the productivity for all but the most drought‐tolerant perennial grasses and shrubs in the Chihuahuan Desert. Overall, our regional synthesis of long‐term data provides a robust foundation for forecasting future shifts in the composition and structure of plant assemblages in the largest North American warm desert.

Antecedentes: El conocimiento taxonómico y florístico de las plantas vasculares del norte de México presenta avances relevantes, aunque disgregados. Por lo anterior, es crítico hacer un diagnóstico para definir estrategias que los unifiquen y complementen. Preguntas: ¿cuál es la riqueza y endemismo de las plantas vasculares en el norte de México?, ¿en cuáles de sus áreas deben concentrarse los esfuerzos de exploración? Sitio de estudio: norte de México (Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango y Nuevo León). Métodos: Se desarrolló una base de datos de plantas vasculares del norte de México a partir de la del Herbario CIIDIR, complementada con registros provenientes de la Universidad de Chihuahua, Universidad Antonio Narro y Universidad de Nuevo León, así como de revisión de trabajos taxonómicos y de los herbarios ANSM, CFNL, CIIDIR y FZ-UACH. Se calculó la riqueza y endemismo por estado y por ecorregión; se definieron los grupos y áreas geográficas mejor conocidos y los huecos en conocimiento; y se elaboró una relación de los herbarios, programas en botánica y botánicos en la región. Resultados: Se registran 8,503 especies, 1,599 géneros y 210 familias de plantas vasculares; 15 géneros son endémicos estrictos de la región. La mayor riqueza se registra para Durango (4,954 especies, 58 % del total). La Sierra Madre Occidental (en su porción para la zona estudiada) es la ecorregión con más especies (3,565), seguida por la Sierra Madre Oriental (2,862) y el Desierto Chihuahuense (2,602). Chihuahua y la Sierra Madre Occidental son el estado y la ecorregión menos explorados, mientras que la ecorregión mejor explorada es el Desierto Chihuahuense. Conclusiones: Las cifras de riqueza y endemismo presentadas reflejan el estado del conocimiento actual, sin embargo, se requiere incrementar los inventarios florísticos, las revisiones taxonómicas y los estudios ecológicos para contar con información más precisa y exacta del panorama real.

Ecological restoration of many arid zones is a pressing issue because of recurrent loss of plant cover. Here, we conducted a germination and growth study of three framework plant species, native to the Chihuahuan Desert in Northern Mexico, to optimize the establishment for arid zone restoration. The plant species were Zinnia grandiflora Nutt., Menodora scabra A. Gray, and Yucca elata (Engelm.) Engelm, which were selected for their potential for restoration as drought tolerant species. We evaluated seed germination, survival, and biomass allocation of seedlings under four (high, medium, low, and very low) simulated rainfall sequences as irrigation treatments. Rainfall sequences were obtained from a previous study that considered 35 years of precipitation records. Each sequence is accounted for 20% of probability of a wet, normal, low, or very low year in terms of precipitation occurring in the study area. Germination was conducted in controlled greenhouse conditions and seeding was done in pots containing soil mix. Sequences produced soil moisture fluctuations in which germination percent was higher for M. scabra (88%) and Z. grandiflora (31%) on the high sequence compared to the other sequences. Survival at the end of the treatments was above 80% of all the three species, and seedlings allocated more aboveground biomass as the moisture increased and more belowground biomass as moisture decreased. Implications under our study conditions include that germination of Y. elata would not be negatively affected by low soil moisture, and the best germinative results for Z. grandiflora and M. scabra would be achieved under higher soil moisture.

Premise: Not all ferns grow in moist and shaded habitats. One well‐known example is Notholaena standleyi, a species that thrives in deserts of the southwestern United States and Mexico. This species exhibits several “chemotypes” that differ in farina (flavonoid exudates) color and chemistry. By integrating data from molecular phylogenetics, cytology, biochemistry, and biogeography, we circumscribed the major evolutionary lineages within N. standleyi and reconstructed their diversification histories.Methods: Forty‐eight samples were selected from across the geographic distribution of N. standleyi. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred using four plastid and five nuclear markers. Ploidy levels were inferred using spore sizes calibrated by chromosome counts, and farina chemistry was compared using thin‐layer chromatography.Results: Four clades are recognized, three of which roughly correspond to previously recognized chemotypes. The diploid clades G and Y are found in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts, respectively; they are estimated to have diverged in the Pleistocene, congruent with the postulated timing of climatological events separating these two deserts. Clade P/YG is tetraploid and partially overlaps the distribution of clade Y in the eastern Chihuahuan Desert. It is apparently confined to limestone, a geologic substrate rarely occupied by members of the other clades. The cryptic (C) clade, a diploid group known only from southern Mexico and highly disjunct from the other three clades, is newly recognized here.Conclusions: Our results reveal a complex intraspecific diversification history of N. standleyi, traceable to a variety of evolutionary drivers including classic allopatry, parapatry with or without changes in geologic substrate, and sympatric divergence through polyploidization.