College graduates play a crucial role as valuable human resources in China’s talent market. Currently, the employment situation of college graduates is a widely discussed topic that concerns the entire society. Utilizing data from the Employment Quality Report of College Graduates, this study delves into the employment mobility patterns of graduates and employs a GeoDetector model to investigate the factors influencing their employment location choices. Additionally, the study predicts the evolutionary trend of the network using the TERGM model. The research findings reveal the following key points: (1) The spatial distribution of employment for graduates from “Double First-Class” universities in central China exhibits a hierarchical pattern that decreases with distance, influenced by path dependence and meritocratic connections. (2) Central China experiences a competitive dynamic in the employment market with a tug-of-war scenario between the central and eastern regions. (3) The factor detector found strong effects of regional innovation capacity and regional economic level on graduate mobility.