Monitoring the impact of current Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) management practices on future Ecosystem Services (ESs) provisioning has been emphasized because of the effect of such practices on ecological sustainability. We sought to model and predict the impacts of future LULC changes on subsequent changes in Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) in fragile environments undergoing complex LULC changes, Su-Xi-Chang region. After mapping and classifying the LULC for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010 using GIS and remote sensing, a Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov model was employed to model future LULC changes for the year 2020. ESV was predicted using the projected LULC data and the modified ES coefficients adopted by Xie et al. (2003). The projected results of the changes in LULC reveal that construction land expanded extensively, mainly at the expense of farmland, wetland, and water bodies. The predicted results of the ESVs indicate that water bodies and farmland are the dominant LULC categories, accounting for 90% of the total ESV. Over the study period, ESVs were diminished by 7.3915 billion CNY, mostly because of the decrease in farmland, water bodies, and wetland. A reasonable land use plan should be developed with an emphasis on controlling construction land encroachment on farmland, wetlands, and water bodies. The rules of ecological protection should be followed in LULC management to preserve ecological resources.

Human pressure on a rugged and fragile landscape can cause land use/cover changes that significantly alter the provision of ecosystem services. Estimating the multiple services, particularly those obtained from agroforestry systems, is seldom attempted. A combined approach of geospatial technology, cross-sectional field investigations, and economic valuation of natural capital was used to develop an ecosystem service valuation (ESV) model to estimate changes in ESV between 1986 and 2015 in southern Ethiopia. Over 120 values were sourced, mainly from an ecosystem service valuation database and allied sources, to establish value coefficients via benefit transfer method. Our 1848 km² study landscape, with eight land use categories, yielded an annual total ESV of $129 × 10⁶ in 1986 and $147 × 10⁶ in 2015, a 14.2% ($18.3 million) increase in three decades, showing its relative resilience. Yet we observed losses of natural vegetation classes whose area and/or value coefficients were too small to offset their increased value from expanding agroforestry and wetland/marshes, which have the largest cover share and highest economic value, respectively. Appreciating the unique features of agroforests, we strongly recommend that their economic value is studied as a separate ecosystem for further valuation accuracy improvement.

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes significantly influence both socioeconomic conditions and environmental systems at local, regional, and global levels. Despite this, limited research has been conducted on how such changes affect wetland ecosystems and the services they provide in Ethiopia's Central Highlands. This study aims to examine the dynamics of LULC changes and their impact on wetlands and related ecosystem services, using the Central Ethiopian Highlands as a case study. The analysis employs geospatial tools and ecosystem service valuation (ESV) coefficients as primary data sources. LULC changes were assessed using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, while ESVs were estimated through the benefit transfer method, based on previously established global coefficients. Between 2003 and 2023, the study found that built-up areas, forest land, and agricultural land expanded by 85.1%, 15.1%, and 4.9%, respectively. In contrast, there were significant reductions in wetlands (87.5%), bare land (65.7%), and water bodies (49.3%). Over the same period, the total loss in ecosystem service value across the landscape amounted to approximately USD 1,449.2 million per hectare per year, reflecting a 10.5% decline. The most substantial losses in ecosystem services were observed in wetlands (USD 2,078.4 million per hectare per year, a decline of 87.5%) and water bodies (USD 364.9 million per hectare per year, a decline of 49.3%). Furthermore, all categories of ecosystem services—including provisioning, regulating, habitat, and cultural services—experienced a general decline. In conclusion, the Central Highlands of Ethiopia have undergone significant LULC transformations over the past two decades, leading to notable degradation in essential ecosystem services. This underscores the urgent need for sustainable land management strategies that curb unregulated urbanization and agricultural expansion, promote alternative livelihoods, raise public awareness, and establish buffer zones to protect remaining wetland habitats.