Monitoring the impact of current Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) management practices on future Ecosystem Services (ESs) provisioning has been emphasized because of the effect of such practices on ecological sustainability. We sought to model and predict the impacts of future LULC changes on subsequent changes in Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) in fragile environments undergoing complex LULC changes, Su-Xi-Chang region. After mapping and classifying the LULC for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010 using GIS and remote sensing, a Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov model was employed to model future LULC changes for the year 2020. ESV was predicted using the projected LULC data and the modified ES coefficients adopted by Xie et al. (2003). The projected results of the changes in LULC reveal that construction land expanded extensively, mainly at the expense of farmland, wetland, and water bodies. The predicted results of the ESVs indicate that water bodies and farmland are the dominant LULC categories, accounting for 90% of the total ESV. Over the study period, ESVs were diminished by 7.3915 billion CNY, mostly because of the decrease in farmland, water bodies, and wetland. A reasonable land use plan should be developed with an emphasis on controlling construction land encroachment on farmland, wetlands, and water bodies. The rules of ecological protection should be followed in LULC management to preserve ecological resources.

Human pressure on a rugged and fragile landscape can cause land use/cover changes that significantly alter the provision of ecosystem services. Estimating the multiple services, particularly those obtained from agroforestry systems, is seldom attempted. A combined approach of geospatial technology, cross-sectional field investigations, and economic valuation of natural capital was used to develop an ecosystem service valuation (ESV) model to estimate changes in ESV between 1986 and 2015 in southern Ethiopia. Over 120 values were sourced, mainly from an ecosystem service valuation database and allied sources, to establish value coefficients via benefit transfer method. Our 1848 km² study landscape, with eight land use categories, yielded an annual total ESV of $129 × 10⁶ in 1986 and $147 × 10⁶ in 2015, a 14.2% ($18.3 million) increase in three decades, showing its relative resilience. Yet we observed losses of natural vegetation classes whose area and/or value coefficients were too small to offset their increased value from expanding agroforestry and wetland/marshes, which have the largest cover share and highest economic value, respectively. Appreciating the unique features of agroforests, we strongly recommend that their economic value is studied as a separate ecosystem for further valuation accuracy improvement.

This paper examines the impact of land tenure security perceptions on rural‐urban migration decisions of rural households, using data collected in Minle County in Northwest China. We find that tenure security perceptions play a significant role in household migration decisions in villages without well‐functioning land rental markets but not in villages where the land rental markets are more developed. In villages with underdeveloped land rental markets, households that expect that no land reallocations will occur within their village in the near future are less involved in migration, while households that attach a greater importance to land certificates in protecting land use rights are more involved in migration.

Improving technical efficiency in agriculture can play an important role in meeting present and future demands for agricultural products, at the same time enhancing the long-term sustainability of land and water use. This paper examines the impact of household perceptions of land tenure security on technical efficiency using detailed household-level data collected in Minle County in northwest China. The authors find that the (perceived) tenure security provided by land certificates encourages part-time farming with relatively low technical efficiency. The renting out of land by households with migrant members can only partly make up for this negative effect, because land rental markets are thin and highly fragmented. Therefore, the provision of land certificates to rural households has a negative impact on technical efficiency. For tenure security provided by the expected absence of land reallocations in the near future, on the other hand, the authors find that it reduces temporary migration and thereby contributes to higher technical efficiency.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of land property rights integrity, subdivided into use rights, mortgage rights, and transfer rights, on household perceptions of long-term tenure security in China. To this end, we establish a theoretical framework that links China’s collective forest tenure reforms undertaken since 2003 to property rights integrity and two sources of tenure (in)security based on property rights theory: forestland reallocation and expropriation. Probit models are applied in the empirical analysis to household data collected in Jiangxi province in 2011 and 2013. The results indicate that household perceptions of tenure insecurity resulting from forestland reallocation expectations are affected by transfer rights, whereas household perceptions of insecurity resulting from forestland expropriation expectations are not affected by forestland rights. We thus suggest that it is crucial for policymakers to identify the sources of local property rights insecurity before they take steps to strengthen land tenure security. This paper contributes to the available literature on the relationship between property rights integrity and tenure security by identifying different sources of tenure insecurity, emphasizing the effect of property rights integrity on long-term tenure security, and taking into account the potential endogeneity problem.

Understanding land-expropriated farmers’ welfare change and the determinants of their willingness to change is very important for sustainable urbanization and social stability in developing countries. However, this issue has been seldom explored in previous studies, especially in China. This paper aims to enrich this field by conducting an empirical study using a household survey in 2014 in Nanjing, a major city in the Yangtze River Delta. The impacts of land expropriation on the variation of land-expropriated farmers’ employment and inhabitance are explored, while the determinants of land-expropriated farmers’ willingness are estimated using ordered logistic regression. Results show that the land-expropriated farmers pay more attention to the changes of employment and inhabitance after land expropriation, rather than land expropriation itself. While employment aspects were key determinants of the farmers’ willingness in 1996, factors relating to inhabitance aspects have become more important nowadays. Moreover, it is necessary to grasp the changing rules of land-expropriated farmers’ interest appeals in order to adjust the compensation and resettlement policies according to local conditions. Thus, this will improve land-expropriated farmers’ willingness. Meanwhile, the government should create a better expectation of employment and inhabitance after land expropriation for farmers. Furthermore, the government should also build a land expropriation information sharing and feedback mechanism in addition to improve the employment and housing security system.