In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial ‘unseen majority’. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.

▪ Abstract Culicoides biting midges are among the most abundant of haematophagous insects, and occur throughout most of the inhabited world. Across this broad range they transmit a great number of assorted pathogens of human, and domestic and wild animals, but it is as vectors of arboviruses, and particularly arboviruses of domestic livestock, that they achieve their prime importance. To date, more than 50 such viruses have been isolated from Culicoides spp. and some of these cause diseases of such international significance that they have been allocated Office International des Épizooties (OIE) List A status. Culicoides are world players in the epidemiology of many important arboviral diseases. In this context this paper deals with those aspects of midge biology facilitating disease transmission, describes the factors controlling insect-virus interactions at the individual insect and population level, and illustrates the far-reaching effects that certain components of climate have upon the midges and, hence, transmission potential.

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion.

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number,R₀, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we computeR₀for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influencesR₀were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude ofR₀. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate.

Scrapie, an invariably fatal disease of sheep and goats, is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE). The putative infectious agent is the host-encoded prion protein, PrP. The development of scrapie is closely linked to polymorphisms in the host PrP gene. The pathogenesis of most TSEs involves conversion of normal, cellular PrP into a protease-resistant, pathogenic isoform called PrPSc. The conversion to PrPSc involves change in secondary structure; it is impacts on these structural changes that may link polymorphisms to disease. Within the structured C-terminal part of PrP polymorphisms have been reported at 15 and 10 codons of the sheep and goat PrP genes respectively. Three polymorphisms in sheep are acutely linked to the occurrence of scrapie: A136V, R154H and Q171R / H. These generate five commonly observed alleles: ARQ, ARR, AHQ, ARH and VRQ. ARR and AHQ are associated with resistance; ARQ, ARH and VRQ are associated with susceptibility. There are subtle effects of specific allele pairings (genotypes). Generally, more susceptible genotypes have younger ages at death from scrapie. Different strains of scrapie occur which may attack genotypes differently. Different sheep breeds vary in the assortment of the five alleles that they predominantly encode. The reason for this variation is not known. Furthermore, certain genotypes may be susceptible to scrapie in some breeds and resistant in others. The explanation is not known, but may relate to different scrapie strains circulating in different breeds, or there may be effects of other genes which modulate the effect of PrP.