Urban electricity power consumption (EPC) prediction plays a crucial role in urban management and sustainable development. Nighttime light (NTL) remote sensing imagery has demonstrated significant potential in estimating urban EPC due to its strong correlation with human activities and energy use. However, most existing models focus on annual-scale estimations, limiting their ability to capture month-scale EPC. To address this limitation, a novel monthly EPC prediction model that incorporates monthly average temperature, and the interaction between NTL data and temperature was proposed in this study. The proposed method was applied to cities within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration, and was validated using datasets constructed from NPP/VIIRS and SDGSAT-1 satellite imageries, respectively. For the NPP/VIIRS dataset, the proposed method achieved a Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) of 7.96% during the training phase (2017–2022) and of 10.38% during the prediction phase (2023), outperforming the comparative methods. Monthly EPC spatial distribution maps from VPP/VIIRS data were generated, which not only reflect the spatial patterns of EPC but also clearly illustrate the temporal evolution of EPC at the spatial level. Annual EPC estimates also showed superior accuracy compared to three comparative methods, achieving a MARE of 7.13%. For the SDGSAT-1 dataset, leave-one-out cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the model, and high-resolution (40 m) monthly EPC maps were generated, enabling the identification of power consumption zones and their spatial characteristics. The proposed method provides a timely and accurate means for capturing monthly EPC dynamics, effectively supporting the dynamic monitoring of urban EPC at the monthly scale in the YRD urban agglomeration.

Analyzing the electric power consumption (EPC) patterns of China’s mega urban agglomerations is crucial for promoting sustainable development both domestically and globally. Utilizing 2017–2021 NPP/VIIRS low-light remote sensing imagery to extract total nighttime light data, this study proposed an EPC prediction method based on the K-Means clustering algorithm combined with multiple indicators integrated with socio-economic factors. Combining IPAT theory, regional GDP and population density, the final EPC prediction models were developed. Using these models, the EPC distributions for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomerations in 2017–2021 were generated at both the administrative district level and the 1 km × 1 km grid scale. The spatio-temporal dynamics of the EPC distribution in these urban agglomerations during this period were then analyzed, followed by EPC predictions for 2022. The models showed a significant improvement in prediction accuracy, with the average MARE decreasing from 30.52% to 7.60%, 25.61% to 11.08% and 18.24% to 12.85% for the three urban agglomerations, respectively; EPC clusters were identified in these areas, mainly concentrated in Langfang and Chengde, Shanghai and Suzhou, and Dongguan; from 2017 to 2021, the EPC values of the three urban agglomerations show a growth trend and the distribution patterns were consistent with their economic development and population density; the R² values and the statistical values for the 2022 EPC predictions using the improved classification EPC models reached 0.9692, 0.9903 and 0.9677, respectively, confirming that the proposed method can effectively predict the EPC of urban agglomerations and is applicable in various scenarios. This method provides a timely and accurate spatial update of EPC dynamics, offering fine-scale characterization of urban EPC patterns using night light images.