Net primary productivity (NPP), a key indicator of terrestrial ecosystem quality and function, represents the amount of organic matter produced by vegetation per unit area and time. This study utilizes the MOD17A3 NPP dataset (2001–2022) to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of NPP in Xinjiang and projects future trends using Theil-Sen trend analysis, the Mann–-Kendall test, and the Hurst Index. By integrating meteorological data, this study employs partial correlation analysis, the Miami model, and residual analysis to explore the driving mechanisms behind NPP changes influenced by climatic factors and human activities. The results indicate that: (1) The average NPP in Xinjiang has increased over the years, displaying a spatial pattern with higher values in the north and west. Regions with increasing NPP outnumber those with declining trends, while 75.18% of the area shows un-certain future trends. (2) Precipitation exhibits a stronger positive correlation with NPP compared to temperature. (3) Climate change accounts for 28.34% of the variation in NPP, while human activities account for 71.66%, making the latter the dominant driving factor. This study aids in monitoring ecological degradation risks in arid regions of China and provides a scientific basis for developing rational coping strategies and ecological restoration initiatives.

In recent decades, the increasing threats of global climate change, natural disasters, and epidemics have brought extensive attention to resilience theory. However, most studies focus on the physical aspects of cities, overlooking the significance of the social perspective. This study addresses this gap by using social areas as the core spatial unit for analysis. By constructing a scientific indicator system and employing the set pair analysis method, this study comprehensively evaluates the multidimensional resilience levels of Beijing’s central area during its transitional period (1990–2020). The findings reveal that socio-spatial divisions, which emphasize the network structure of social relations and the dynamic changes in social spaces, are more suitable than traditional administrative divisions as fundamental units for resilience assessment. During Beijing’s transitional period, the comprehensive resilience of the central area and all social areas steadily increased, although social capital resilience faced the challenges of loss and slow recovery. Social areas with a unique internal connection, such as those based on ethnicity, exhibited more positive social capital resilience development. Additionally, social areas with lower population diversity and greater homogeneity tended to have higher comprehensive resilience and a more positive trend in social capital resilience development, whereas highly heterogeneous social areas faced significant constraints in resilience development. These findings may provide valuable insights for cities and communities to enhance their capacity to address future uncertainties and assist policymakers in making informed governance decisions.