Net primary productivity (NPP), a key indicator of terrestrial ecosystem quality and function, represents the amount of organic matter produced by vegetation per unit area and time. This study utilizes the MOD17A3 NPP dataset (2001–2022) to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of NPP in Xinjiang and projects future trends using Theil-Sen trend analysis, the Mann–-Kendall test, and the Hurst Index. By integrating meteorological data, this study employs partial correlation analysis, the Miami model, and residual analysis to explore the driving mechanisms behind NPP changes influenced by climatic factors and human activities. The results indicate that: (1) The average NPP in Xinjiang has increased over the years, displaying a spatial pattern with higher values in the north and west. Regions with increasing NPP outnumber those with declining trends, while 75.18% of the area shows un-certain future trends. (2) Precipitation exhibits a stronger positive correlation with NPP compared to temperature. (3) Climate change accounts for 28.34% of the variation in NPP, while human activities account for 71.66%, making the latter the dominant driving factor. This study aids in monitoring ecological degradation risks in arid regions of China and provides a scientific basis for developing rational coping strategies and ecological restoration initiatives.

During the rapid urbanization phase, the trade-off between ecosystem services is the most severe and also the most effective stage to implement ecological management. Exploring the natural—social driving mechanisms for trade-offs contributes to the coordinated development of the social economy and nature. Taking the typical mountainous city (Yibin) that is currently in the rapid urbanization phase and ecologically fragile as an example, utilizing a combination of difference comparison, trade-off–synergy index (TSI), optimal-parameter-based geographical detector model (OPGD), and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), we spatially assess the nature and intensity of ES relationships and explore its social–natural driving mechanisms. Our findings reveal the following: (1) Varied geospatial patterns of four ESs—habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), soil conservation (SC), and water yield (WY)—with the greatest fluctuations in WY. (2) Significant changes in the nature and intensity of ES relationships over time, showing predominant positive synergies between WY-HQ, WY-SC, and HQ-CS, and negative synergies between HQ and SC, and trade-offs between WY-CS and SC-CS. (3) Distinct, time-varying driving factors for different ES relationships: climate and topography for WY, vegetation and topography for CS, topography and economic factors for HQ, and climate and topography for SC. Rapid urbanization has diminished the role of natural factors. (4) The regression coefficients reveal the local mechanisms of various driving factors, based on which targeted recommendations can be proposed. For instance, the establishment of interconnected small wetlands and green spaces in urban areas contributes to the enhancement of multiple ESs. The purpose of this study is to provide scientific insights into the driving mechanisms and optimizations of the key ecosystem services’ relationships in areas that are currently undergoing rapid urbanization.

The upper reaches are an important part of the Yangtze River Basin. The basin area is large and the terrain is complex, covering nearly all types of terrestrial ecosystems. This study sorts out the information of 313 protected areas in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and uses morphological spatial pattern analysis, a minimum cumulative resistance model, and geospatial indicators to quantitatively analyze the relationship between population density, per capita gross domestic product, and the pattern of protected areas in combination with regional economic and social conditions. Results show that the number of national forest parks is the largest, accounting for 31.31% of the study area. In the study area, all types of protected areas are concentrated distribution, protected areas in sparsely populated areas that are larger, more densely populated, and more economically developed, and the corresponding number of protected areas is greater. The study area is divided into five regions through the analysis of the corridors of the protected areas: the source area of the Yangtze River National Park, the Hengduan Mountain Ecological Strict Protection Area, the Qinling-Daba Mountain Ecological Protection Area, the Northern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Ecological Protection Area, and the Three Gorges Ecological Control Area, forming an ecological network pattern of “one park, four districts, and three rings” in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.

Climate change has brought significant impacts upon the natural ecological environment and human social development. The future carbon balance study has become an important part of research on the impacts of climate change. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a key area for studying climate change. Grassland, as a typical ecosystem of the QTP, embodies the sensitivity of the plateau to the climatic environment, so the carbon balance of grassland under future climate change conditions is important for studying global change. This paper reviewed the literature on carbon balance projection of grassland on the QTP under climate change. Two types of research methods were used to analyze and discuss the studies’ results, including experimental scenario projection and model projection. The experiment projected that appropriate temperature and moisture could enhance the carbon sink capacity of a grassland ecosystem, where moisture played a leading role. The model projection results showed that the carbon balance under different spatial and temporal scales were different. Although both can project the carbon balance of the study area, there are still some uncertainties. In addition, this research area should also consider the influence of human activity and plateau pikas to more accurately project the future carbon balance.