Calderas are collapse structures related to the emptying of magmatic reservoirs, often associated with large eruptions from long-lived magmatic systems. Understanding how magma is transferred from a magma reservoir to the surface before eruptions is a major challenge. Here we exploit the historical, archaeological and geological record of Campi Flegrei caldera to estimate the surface deformation preceding the Monte Nuovo eruption and investigate the shallow magma transfer. Our data suggest a progressive magma accumulation from ~1251 to 1536 in a 4.6 ± 0.9 km deep source below the caldera centre, and its transfer, between 1536 and 1538, to a 3.8 ± 0.6 km deep magmatic source ~4 km NW of the caldera centre, below Monte Nuovo; this peripheral source fed the eruption through a shallower source, 0.4 ± 0.3 km deep. This is the first reconstruction of pre-eruptive magma transfer at Campi Flegrei and corroborates the existence of a stationary oblate source, below the caldera centre, that has been feeding lateral eruptions for the last ~5 ka. Our results suggest: 1) repeated emplacement of magma through intrusions below the caldera centre; 2) occasional lateral transfer of magma feeding non-central eruptions within the caldera. Comparison with historical unrest at calderas worldwide suggests that this behavior is common.

We forecast where magma will breach Earth’s surface based on how the volcano’s shape and size have evolved.

The 501 m deep hole of the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project, located west of the Naples metropolitan area and inside the Campi Flegrei caldera, gives new insight to reconstruct the volcano‐tectonic evolution of this highly populated volcano. It is one of the highest risk volcanic areas in the world, but its tectonic structure, eruptive history, and size of the largest eruptions are intensely debated in the literature. New stratigraphic and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological dating allow us to determine, for the first time, the age of intracaldera deposits belonging to the two highest magnitude caldera‐forming eruptions (i.e., Campanian Ignimbrite, CI, 39 ka, and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff, NYT, 14.9 ka) and to estimate the amount of collapse. Tuffs from 439 m of depth yield the first ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of ca. 39 ka within the caldera, consistent with the CI. Volcanic rocks from the NYT were, moreover, detected between 250 and 160 m. Our findings highlight: (i) a reduction of the area affected by caldera collapse, which appears to not include the city of Naples; (ii) a small volume of the infilling caldera deposits, particularly for the CI, and (iii) the need for reassessment of the collapse amounts and mechanisms related to larger eruptions. Our results also imply a revaluation of volcanic risk for the eastern caldera area, including the city of Naples. The results of this study point out that large calderas are characterized by complex collapse mechanisms and dynamics, whose understanding needs more robust constraints, which can be obtained from scientific drilling.

Transient seismicity at active volcanoes poses a significant risk in addition to eruptive activity. This risk is powered by the common belief that volcanic seismicity cannot be forecast, even on a long term. Here we investigate the nature of volcanic seismicity to try to improve our forecasting capacity. To this aim, we consider Ischia volcano (Italy), which suffered similar earthquakes along its uplifted resurgent block. We show that this seismicity marks an acceleration of decades‐long subsidence of the resurgent block, driven by degassing of magma that previously produced the uplift, a process not observed at other volcanoes. Degassing will continue for hundreds to thousands of years, causing protracted seismicity and will likely be accompanied by moderate and damaging earthquakes. The possibility to constrain the future duration of seismicity at Ischia indicates that our capacity to forecast earthquakes might be enhanced when seismic activity results from long‐term magmatic processes, such as degassing