Waterbirds depend on a dispersed network of wetlands for their annual life cycle during migration. Climate and land use changes raise new concerns about the sustainability of these habitat networks, as water scarcity triggers ecological and socioeconomic impacts threatening wetland availability and quality. During the migration period, birds can be present in large enough numbers to influence water quality themselves linking them and water management in efforts to conserve habitats for endangered populations. Despite this, the guidelines within laws do not properly account for the annual change of water quality due to natural factors such as the migration periods of birds. Principal component analysis and principal component regression was used to analyze the correlations between the presence of a multitude of migratory waterbird communities and water quality metrics based on a dataset collected over four years in the Dumbrăvița section of the Homoród stream in Transylvania. The results reveal a correlation between the presence and numbers of various bird species and the seasonal changes in water quality. Piscivorous birds tended to increase the phosphorus load, herbivorous waterbirds the nitrogen load, while benthivorous duck species influenced a variety of parameters. The established PCR water quality prediction model showed accurate prediction capabilities for the water quality index of the observed region. For the tested data set, the method provided an R² value of 0.81 and a mean squared prediction error of 0.17.

In this work, the authors provide a case study of time series regression techniques for water quality forecasting. With the constant striving to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), the need for sensitive and reliable water management tools has become critical. Continuous online surface water quality monitoring systems that record time series data about surface water parameters are essential for the supervision of water conditions and proper water management practices. The time series data obtained from these systems can be used to develop mathematical models for the prediction of the temporal evolution of water quality parameters. Using these mathematical models, predictions can be made about future trends in water quality to pinpoint irregular behaviours in measured data and identify the presence of anomalous events. We compared the performance of regression models with different structures for the forecasting of water parameters by utilizing a data set collected from the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System (KBWPS) wetland region of Hungary over an observation period of eleven months as a case study. In our study, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression models with different structures have been compared based on forecasting performance. Using the resulting models, trends of the oxygen saturation, pH level, electrical conductivity, and redox potential of the water could be accurately forecast (validation data residual standard deviation between 0.09 and 20.8) while in the case of turbidity, only averages of future values could be predicted (validation data residual standard deviation of 56.3).