The general objective of this research was to propose a new fire risk index, specifically the Fire Risk Atlantic Forest (FIAF) index in Itatiaia National Park (PNI). The data were collected from two levels (2 and 10 m) of a micrometeorological tower, with a time series on an hourly scale, daily from 2018 to 2021. Two multiple regression models were generated for the two collection levels (FIAF 2 and 10 m) and, based on the statistical criteria and the choice of the best model, a future simulation was generated using the scenario SSP 4.5 for 2022 to 2050. The correlation matrix between the data from the FIAF and fire foci models was also analyzed. The FIAF model was compared with the traditional models already used in Brazil, such as the Angström indices, Monte Alegre Formula (FMA), and the improved Monte Alegre Formula (FMA+) models. The results showed that the FIAF model at 10 m overestimated the results observed mainly during the dry season. The FIAF 2 m model presented the highest correlation with a fire foci value greater than 0.74. In the future simulation, the years that presented the highest extreme risks were: 2025, 2035, 2041, and 2049. Thus, it is possible to state that the FIAF model at the 2 m level was the best model for predicting the degree of fire risk in the PNI.

Tropical forests stand out among forest domains, due to their wide diversity of flora and fauna. However, these areas concentrate a large number of the forest fires that occur annually on the planet. In this context, the present study performs spatial modeling of the normalized multi-band drought index (NMDI) in the Central Atlantic Forest Corridor during past (2001-2020) and future (2021-2040) periods to identify the relationship between drought and forest fires. Fire foci data, soil moisture, and data from the MOD09A1 product were used to obtain the NMDI. Rainfall and mean air temperature data from the past and for different future scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) were also used. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used for modeling the NMDI. The results found indicate a recurrence of fire in the CAFC during the period of 2001–2020. Future data indicate reductions in rainfall and an increase in temperature in the CAFC area. The NMDI data indicate that the central region of the corridor is the driest and, among the priority areas for conservation, the Ilha do Lameirão Municipal ecological station has the lowest index values. Future modeling indicates the drought intensifying in the coming years in the corridor area. The CAFC is an extremely important area for the maintenance of Atlantic Forest remnants; however, this area continues to suffer disturbances and without the adoption of public policies, these disturbances could compromise the conservation of natural resources.

This study evaluated water sampling methodologies for determining limnological variables in a cross section of the Catolé Grande River at different flow rates. Samples were collected at depths of 15-30 cm and compared with integrated samples. The variables of turbidity, pH, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and total coliforms were quantified. The results were compared, according to the different collection methodologies, using the statistical index, model efficiency, coefficient of determination, and linear regression analysis. There was little influence of the sampling methodologies in relation to turbidity, conductivity and total coliforms variables. For the pH variable, the sampling performed at 15-30 cm depth caused overestimation when compared to the integrated sample. Regarding the dissolved oxygen variable, the values obtained using 15-30 cm samples tend to overestimate when the concentrations are lower than 6.5 mg L-1;however, when the concentration is higher than this value, this type of sampling tends to underestimated when compared to values obtained using the integrated samples.