Inland arid basins face the challenge of ecological deterioration due to insufficient water availability. The irrigation water consumption depletes the water flowing into the downstream tailrace ecological wetland, leading to increasing ecological deterioration. It is urgent to optimize the management of irrigation water resources in the middle reaches and improve the ecological sustainability of the lower reaches. To ensure sustainable development, improving water use efficiency and preserving the health of basin ecosystems should be simultaneously considered in the agricultural water management of these regions. Therefore, a 0–1 integer multi-objective programming approach was proposed to optimize midstream crop planting. This method has advantages in (1) effectively balancing ecological sustainability, agricultural production, and water-saving goals; (2) linking irrigation district management with grid geographic information to develop land use strategies; and (3) obtaining optimal solutions for multi-objective synergies. The proposed approach is applied to a typical inland river basin in China, the Heihe River Basin in Gansu Province. Results indicate that the optimization schemes can increase agricultural benefits, crop suitability, water use efficiency, and ecological quality by 12.37%, 6.82%, 13.00%, and 8.04% (compared to 2022), respectively, while irrigation water can be saved about 7.53%. The optimization results and proposed approach can help decision-makers manage water resources in the Heihe River Basin and similar regions.

Ecological sustainability quantifies the capacity of an ecological system to sustain its health while fulfilling human survival needs and supporting future development. An accurate projection of ecological dynamics for sustainability is crucial for decision-makers to comprehend potential risks. However, the intricate interplay between climate change and human activity has hindered comprehensive assessments of future ecological sustainability, leaving it inadequately investigated thus far. This study aimed to assess future ecological sustainability shaped by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using remote sensing data from a typical arid farming–pastoral zone located at the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain (NFYM), Inner Mongolia, China. Five machine learning models were employed to evaluate the relationship between ecological sustainability and its driving factors. The results indicate that (1) overall ecological sustainability initially decreased and then increased during 2003–2022; (2) the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model version 4 (GFDL-ESM4) mode and random forest model demonstrated the best performance in climate and ecological sustainability simulations; and (3) the annual change rates of ecological sustainability from 2023 to 2099 are projected to be +0.45%, −0.05%, and −0.46% per year under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, suggesting that stringent environmental policies can effectively enhance ecological sustainability. The proposed framework can assist decision-makers in understanding ecological changes under different SSPs and calls for strategies to enhance ecosystem resilience in the NFYM and similar regions.

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake introduced during the production process. The author's name 'Chunsheng Wu' was incorrectly written as 'Chunseng Wu'. The original article has been corrected. Publisher's Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.