In recent years, the socio-economic development in the Tibet region of China has experienced substantial growth. However, transportation increasingly strains the region’s fragile ecological environment. Most studies overlook the accurate measurement and analysis of factors influencing traffic carbon emissions in Tibet due to data scarcity. To address this, this paper applies an improved traffic carbon emissions model, using transportation turnover data to estimate emissions in Tibet from 2008 to 2020. Simultaneously, the estimated traffic carbon emissions in Tibet served as the predicted variable, and various machine learning algorithms, including Radial Basis Function Support Vector Machine (RBF-SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) are employed to conduct an initial comparison of the constructed prediction models using three-fold cross-validation and multiple evaluation metrics. The best-performing model undergoes further optimization using Grid Search (GS) and Real-coded Genetic Algorithm (RGA). Finally, the central difference method and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanation (LIME) algorithm are used for local sensitivity and interpretability analyses on twelve core variables. The results assess each variable’s contribution to the model’s output, enabling a comprehensive analysis of their impact on Tibet’s traffic carbon emissions. The findings demonstrate a significant upward trend in Tibet’s traffic carbon emissions, with road transportation and civil aviation being the main contributors. The RBF-SVM algorithm is most suitable for predicting traffic carbon emissions in this region. After GS optimization, the model’s R² value exceeded 0.99, indicating high predictive accuracy and stability. Key factors influencing traffic carbon emissions in Tibet include civilian vehicle numbers, transportation land-use area, transportation output value, urban green coverage areas, per capita GDP, and built-up area. This paper provides a systematic framework and empirical support for measuring, predicting, and analyzing factors influencing traffic carbon emissions in Tibet. It employs innovative measurement methods, optimized machine learning models, and detailed sensitivity and interpretability analyses. The results can guide regional carbon reduction targets and promote green sustainable development.

The complex topography of China’s Tibetan Plateau mountainous roads, characterized by diverse curve types and frequent traffic accidents, significantly impacts the safety and sustainability of the transportation system. To enhance driving safety on these mountain roads and promote low-carbon, resilient transportation development, this study investigates the mechanisms through which different curve types affect driving safety and proposes optimization strategies based on interpretable machine learning methods. Focusing on three typical curve types in plateau regions, drone high-altitude photography was employed to capture footage of three specific curves along China’s National Highway G318. Oblique photography was utilized to acquire road environment information, from which 11 data indicators were extracted. Subsequently, 8 indicators, including cornering preference and vehicle type, were designated as explanatory variables, the curve type indicator was set as the dependent variable, and the remaining indicators were established as safety assessment indicators. Linear models (logistic regression, ridge regression) and non-linear models (Random Forest, LightGBM, XGBoost) were used to conduct model comparison and factor analysis. Ultimately, three non-linear models were selected, employing an explainability-oriented dynamic ensemble learning strategy (X-DEL) to evaluate the three curve types. The results indicate that non-linear models outperform linear models in terms of accuracy and scene adaptability. The explainability-oriented dynamic ensemble learning strategy (X-DEL) is beneficial for the construction of driving safety models and factor analysis on Tibetan Plateau mountainous roads. Furthermore, the contribution of indicators to driving safety varies across different curve types. This research not only deepens the scientific understanding of safety issues on plateau mountainous roads but, more importantly, its proposed solutions directly contribute to building safer, more efficient, and environmentally friendly transportation systems, thereby providing crucial impetus for sustainable transportation and high-quality regional development in the Tibetan Plateau.