Food security is a key target in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and is also one of the biggest challenges for China, the largest developing country in population in the world. Massive attention has been directed to the future impacts of hydrometeorological extremes on crop yield. However, knowledge gaps still stand concerning the effectiveness of irrigation, as the largest water consumption sector, on agricultural production under different climate scenarios. Here we showed the drought based on the modified Palmer Drought Severity Index and analyzed the drought-induced wheat yield losses in irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture across China according to three methods including the Multiple Linear Regression method, Deep Learning algorithm, and Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator model. We found that the droughts become more intensive in the future, and drought-induced wheat yield loss under RCP8.5 scenario was expected to reach 32–49%. Intercomparison of drought-induced wheat yield changes between irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture indicated significantly less drought-induced crop-yield losses given sufficient irrigation under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios. However, our results under RCP8.5 suggested that the effectiveness of irrigation in enhancing food security is minor under this high-emission future climate scenario. These findings allowed us to revisit the effectiveness of irrigation in a warming climate and highlighted the importance of climate change mitigation in food security.

Fire regulates the carbon, water and nutrient cycles, especially in regions with distinct wet and dry seasons. The dramatic vegetation response to climatic factors complicates fire preconditions in Eurasian drylands, leaving our understanding of climate-fuel-fire patterns limited. Here we identify eight pyromes with unique combinations of fire characteristics of size, expansion, frequency and duration. We find these pyromes are geographically contiguous and exhibit varied response to climate, fuel load, fuel flammability and human activities. Fuel load is closely related to fast-spreading fires in Eurasian Steppe, which mostly belongs to the large-fast-frequent-long (LFFL) and medium-fast-intermediate-short (MFIS) pyromes. There, antecedent fine fuel accumulation during the growing season dries out in the subsequent dry season, is ignited by human activity and spreads rapidly. High-latitude regions are dominated by slow-spreading but long-lasting fires (large-slow-rare-long (LSRL) and medium-slow-intermediate-long (MSIL) pyromes), where changes in fuel flammability due to long-term climate stress determine fire extent. These findings provide initial guidance of which controls should be considered for improving predictions of fire activity and fire risk assessment across Eurasian drylands.

Compound climate extreme events has inflicted enormous damage since it amplifies their impacts on societies and ecosystems. However, it remains challenging to quantify its interaction and influences due to the vulnerability of drylands. We quantified the spatial and temporal pattern change, climate drivers of fire during 2001-2020 and investigated the interaction between the dry-hot conditions and fire events. The results show that fires mostly occurred in spring and autumn among three typical hotspots located in Southern of the East Europe and Central Asia, northeastern of East Asia, and Indian Peninsula. Cropland fires and grassland fires occurred mostly, followed by forest and shrub and savana fires. The average fire burned area decreased by 0.30 km2/yr in the Eurasian dryland during 2001-2020, while dry-hot compounded fires burned area increase in 0.78 km2/yr. Temperature, precipitation and wind are the main explanatory factors, while lighting is the most important variable around the Black Sea. Dry-hot condition in early stage will increase the frequency and intensity of fire, mainly through affecting the fuel flammability and abundance. Our findings highlight the importance to understand the interrelated co-occurring climate extremes, and further efforts for monitoring and take action to reduce its threat.

Compound climate extreme events has inflicted enormous damage since it amplifies their impacts on societies and ecosystems. However, it remains challenging to quantify its interaction and influences due to the vulnerability of drylands. We quantified the spatial and temporal pattern change, climate drivers of fire during 2001-2020 and investigated the interaction between the dry-hot conditions and fire events. The results show that fires mostly occurred in spring and autumn among three typical hotspots located in Southern of the East Europe and Central Asia, northeastern of East Asia, and Indian Peninsula. Fires in croplands accounted for 70.5% of all fire events in Eurasian drylands, with a limited size of 2.01±0.22 km2 in average. The most extensive fires were observed in grasslands, forests, shrublands, woody savannas, while the average fire burned area decreased by 0.30 km2/yr in the Eurasian dryland during 2001-2020, while dry-hot compounded fires burned area increase in 0.78 km2/yr. Dry-hot condition in early stage will increase the frequency and intensity of fire, mainly through affecting the fuel flammability and abundance. Our findings highlight the importance to understand the interrelated co-occurring climate extremes, and further efforts for monitoring and take action to reduce its threat.

Background: Regional climate controls on wildfires in China remain complex due to high spatial heterogeneity and strict suppression policies. Aims: This study aims to objectively identify coherent high-activity wildfire regions in China and clarify the climatic pathways regulating wildfire activity during the fire season. Methods: We applied an optimized clustering approach to MCD64A1 burned area data (2001–2024) to delineate fire regimes, and used Pearson and partial correlations to analyze regional climate-fire relationships. Key results: Two representative high-activity wildfire regions were identified: the Northeast fire regime area (NFR) and the Southwest fire regime area (SFR). Burned area peaks in both regions during February–April, when soil moisture (SM) deficit acts as a proximal control. However, the climatic drivers regulating SM differ between regions. In the NFR, SM is associated with both snow cover and temperature, both governed by February–March Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions. SM in the SFR is negatively related to temperature, which is positively associated with February–March El Niño conditions. Conclusions: Winter-spring wildfires in the NFR are governed by a cryosphere–temperature pathway while in the SFR are dominated by a thermally driven pathway. Implications: These distinct climate-fire linkages emphasize the importance of region-specific wildfire research under strict fire suppression policies.