Conservation and land use policies are key to regulating water in watersheds, influencing water quantity, quality and storage, and mitigating risks such as erosion and flooding. In Ecuador, the Socio Bosque Program (SBP), part of the Good Living Development Plan (2013-2017), focused on conservation without fully considering water benefits. To optimize its implementation, the upper basin of the Coca River, relevant for its hydroelectric potential, was evaluated by analyzing the inclusion of water criteria in the SBP. Four scenarios of land cover and land use change were developed using the Delphi method: Business as Usual (BAU), Strengthening of SPB (SBPS), National Incentive Plan (NIP), and Degradation (DEG). Runoff rates were estimated for each scenario using a land cover and land use model (TerrSet) and a hydrological model (SWAT). The results show that BAU and DEG cause a decrease in lateral and base flow and an increase in surface runoff, while NIP is the only scenario that maintains water regulation. This highlights the need for future incentives to prioritize strategic areas for water regulation in line with watershed management objectives.

Conservation and land use policies are key to regulating water in watersheds, influencing water quantity, quality and storage, and mitigating risks such as erosion and flooding. In Ecuador, the Socio Bosque Program (SBP), part of the Good Living Development Plan (2013-2017), focused on conservation without fully considering water benefits. To optimize its implementation, the upper basin of the Coca River, relevant for its hydroelectric potential, was evaluated by analyzing the inclusion of water criteria in the SBP. Four scenarios of land cover and land use change were developed using the Delphi method: Business as Usual (BAU), Strengthening of SPB (SBPS), National Incentive Plan (NIP), and Degradation (DEG). Runoff rates were estimated for each scenario using a land cover and land use model (TerrSet) and a hydrological model (SWAT). The results show that BAU and DEG cause a decrease in lateral and base flow and an increase in surface runoff, while NIP is the only scenario that maintains water regulation. This highlights the need for future incentives to prioritize strategic areas for water regulation in line with watershed management objectives.